The theme of this offseason for the Houston Texans has been hope. The hiring of franchise icon DeMeco Ryans as the next head coach is a move that generates a ton of hope. The firing of Jack Easterby back in October, and subsequent restorable of seeming normalcy is a huge hope ignitor for fans and media. Soon, the Texans will draft a quarterback, and that individual will represent hope.
It was Andy Dufresne in “Shawshank Redemption” who said “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.” While Andy was a wise sage who had a good head on his shoulders, he probably knows that hope doesn’t necessarily equate to immediate success, and despite the litany of good moves the Texans have made in recent weeks, they still have a long way to go.
This is evident when you look at the early odds for the Super Bowl champion for the 2023 NFL season, courtesy of BetOnline:
Kansas City Chiefs 6/1
Buffalo Bills 7/1
Philadelphia Eagles 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 8/1
Cincinnati Bengals 9/1
Dallas Cowboys 14/1
Los Angeles Chargers 22/1
Baltimore Ravens 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Las Vegas Raiders 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Miami Dolphins 28/1
Detroit Lions 33/1
Green Bay Packers 33/1
Los Angeles Rams 33/1
New Orleans Saints 33/1
Cleveland Browns 40/1
New York Giants 40/1
Minnesota Vikings 50/1
New England Patriots 50/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50/1
Atlanta Falcons 55/1
Carolina Panthers 66/1
Seattle Seahawks 66/1
Tennessee Titans 66/1
Chicago Bears 75/1
Washington Commanders 75/1
Indianapolis Colts 80/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Houston Texans 150/1
OK, four quick hit thoughts on these odds:
The Texans are in dead last!
Yeah, life is better, but it’s still not great. The good news is, if you have supreme faith that DeMeco Ryans is a football god who can change all things, then you stand to make a windfall that would take care of your kids’ kids if he is indeed just that. The bad news is you’d be better off lighting a $100 bill on fire, and that’s no disrespect to DeMeco!
The AFC South is in rough shape overall
That said, if you’re looking for a division that is ripe to be overtaken by a previously bad football team, it is the AFC South. (Actually, it’s the NFC South, whose four teams all have odds of 33/1 or longer, but just work with me.) The reigning division champions, Jacksonville, are 25/1 and still a bit of a mystery as to whether they belong in this strata or not. The other two non-Texans teams are the Titans (tied for 6th from the bottom) and the Colts (3rd from the bottom). Yuck. But also, YAY, for the Texans’ sake.
Man, that’s some confidence in Sean Payton
The Denver Broncos were one of the worst teams in football last season, largely because the team’s highly paid, monster acquisition, QB Russell Wilson, was an abject failure. He is under contract for five more seasons at roughly $45 million per year. The hope in Denver is that new head coach Sean Payton will be able to magically fix Wilson. Odds that are tied for 8th overall on this board indicate that there are folks out there who believe it. We shall see.
One good speculative bet? The Green Bay Packers at 33/1
If we are looking for possibly overpaid quarterbacks who might bring some value on this board, I give you Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers. The risk here is that the Packers trade Rodgers, and you’re stuck with a dead ticket at 33/1. However, if the Packers hold onto Rodgers (and I’ll believe they’re trading him when i see it), I feel like 33/1 is a nice payout for what I think could be a bounce back year for the Packers, if Rodgers remains in Green Bay.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
