We are three days away from the spectacle that is the first night of the NFL Draft, and the next opportunity for the Houston Texans to add some good players to an already solid roster. Fans and media have had three months to stew over what changes need to be made, and what position groups need improving.
The actions of general manager Nick Caserio, so far this offseason, in which he’s moved on from 60 percent of last season’s Week 1 offensive line, are a clear indicator that he (and by proxy, DeMeco Ryans) share the same urgency as we all do in fixing the offensive line and better protecting C.J. Stroud, without whom this team goes nowhere.
So just HOW acute is the need at offensive line, in terms of the likelihood that the Texans use their first round pick (barring a trade up or down, the 25th overall pick) on an offensive lineman? Well, the oddsmakers have spoken, and they seem to think it is highly likely. Here are the odds on which position the Texans will choose in the first round:
Offensive Lineman -240
Wide Receiver +400
Defensive Lineman/Edge +500
Running Back +2000
Cornerback +3300
Linebacker +3300
Tight End +5000
Safety +6600
Quarterback +20000
So, yeah, the Texans’ selecting along the offensive line in the first round is almost a prohibitive favorite, as -240 odds indicate a nearly 70 percent chance of it happening. For what it’s worth, here is the most likely player, for each position group, that I think the Texans would take if they went that direction, repsctiveny:
Offensive Lineman -240 — TYLER BOOKER, Alabama
There are really about a half dozen names at this position that you could throw into a hat, pull one out, and the Texans would be fine. For this exercise, I predict Booker, because (a) he’s an Alabama guy (Texans love Alabama guys), (b) he’s got over the top leadership traits, and (c) there’s good chance he’s there at 25.
Wide Receiver +400 — MATTHEW GOLDEN, Texas
Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Golden is gone by the 25th pick. His star is rising. However, if he were there, I’d be all over him, as Golden’s style is very much like Tank Dell’s, only with a bigger frame.
Defensive Lineman/Edge +500 — KENNETH GRANT, Michigan
Grant has speed, burst, and agility that belie his 340 pound frame, and would be a great fit in Ryans’ defense, where defensive lineman are asked to get upfield and attack.
Running Back +2000 — OMARION HAMPTON, North Carolina
Ashton Jeanty of Boise State is the consensus best running back in this draft, and there is no chance that he’s around when the Texans select. Hampton, though, is just as clearly the second best back in this class, and he might be there in the 20’s. Hampton would be a fun weapon to help out C.J. Stroud.
Cornerback +3300 — SHAVON REVEL, East Carolina
The Texans reportedly hosted Revel on a visit here in Houston. The biggest checks against Revel, aside from the lack of need for the Texans at cornerback, would be a knee injury he suffered last season and his small school pedigree. Caserio almost always leans toward power conference players.
Linebacker +3300 — JALON WALKER, Georgia
There aren’t a ton of linebackers with first round grades. Walker is one of the few, and he’s got an SEC pedigree, so I’m choosing him as the most likely selection, if the Texans go linebacker in the draft.
Tight End +5000 — COLESTON LOVELAND, Michigan
I actually think tight end at +5000 (50 to 1, in plain English) is decent value. It’s a group that needs improvement, and new offensive coordinator Nick Caley comes from a “tight ends coach” background. I think it’s highly unlikely the Texans choose a tight end, but not “50 to 1” level unlikely.
Safety +6600 — MALAKI STARKS, Georgia
I love Starks as a player, and if the Texans hadn’t traded for C.J. Gardner-Johnson and extended Jalen Pitre, I would think there’s a puncher’s chance they’d select Starks, if he were available, but now, I’d say there’s almost zero chance.
Quarterback +20000 — Not applicable
This is the one position, barring C.J. Stroud getting abducted by clients, for which there is no chance of the Texans sing their first round pick. None.
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