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Houston Texans 2021 Super Bowl Odds Reflect Franchise's Fragile State

O'Brien and Watson both need to improve if the Texans Super Bowl odds for next season are going to improve.
O'Brien and Watson both need to improve if the Texans Super Bowl odds for next season are going to improve.
Photo by Eric Sauseda

I love gambling, I love looking at futures odds, and I love using that data as the basis for sound analysis. You can learn a lot by following the money. I just wish I didn't have to follow this particular money in the latter half of January. We are about to look at odds for next season's Super Bowl, which inherently means the Texans are not involved in the conversation for THIS year's Super Bowl, even though they were up 24 TO FREAKING NOTHING last week against Chiefs.

Uh, anyway, while the adults continue to duke it out for 2019-2020 supremacy, the remainder of the league is at the kids' table, thinking about next season. Thankfully, the good folks at betonline.ag have provided us with odds for next season's Super Bowl. Here they are, with comments afterwards:

Odds to Win Super Bowl LV 2021
Kansas City Chiefs 7/1
Baltimore Ravens 8/1
San Francisco 49ers 8/1
New England Patriots 12/1
New Orleans Saints 14/1
Dallas Cowboys 16/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 16/1
Green Bay Packers 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Chicago Bears 25/1
Los Angeles Chargers 25/1
Los Angeles Rams 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
Seattle Seahawks 25/1
Cleveland Browns 33/1
HOUSTON TEXANS 33/1
Indianapolis Colts 33/1
Philadelphia Eagles 33/1
Buffalo Bills 40/1
Denver Broncos 50/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 50/1
Las Vegas Raiders 50/1
Tennessee Titans 50/1
Carolina Panthers 66/1
New York Giants 66/1
New York Jets 66/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66/1
Arizona Cardinals 80/1
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Miami Dolphins 100/1
Washington Redskins 100/1


OK, thoughts....

The Texans construction project ain't working
I know you don't need me to tell you this. All you have to do is, after drinking very heavily and removing all sharp objects from your home, watch the final three quarters of the playoff loss to the Chiefs, and you can tell, Bill O'Brien ain't it. However, now the oddsmakers have conveyed that exact sentiment to you in a language that they speak — fluent futures odds! So yeah, the Texans have the same Super Bowl odds as the Browns, the Colts, and the Eagles. Put differently, they have the same Super Bowl odds as the most dysfunctional team in the league, a team skippered by Jacoby Brissett, and the Super Bowl champs from two years ago who have been largely a .500 team outside of that playoff run. YIPPEE! GET HYPED, TEXAN FANS!

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Oh, and the AFC at the top is a nightmare
While the Texans are battling the likes of the Browns and the Colts for the cruiserweight title, it should be pointed out that the quest for a Lombardi Trophy is for heavyweights, so if the Texans plan on winning a championship anytime in, oh, say, the next ten years, it will be required that they knock off one or more of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and (still) the New England Patriots. Those three teams are three of the top four on the board at 7/1, 8/1, and 12/1, respectively. Ironically, the Texans beat two of those three teams in the regular season this past year, and yet I've never felt worse during the Deshaun Watson Era about this franchise than I do right this very minute. Your'e a miracle, Bill O'Brien!

Teams with shorter odds that will infuriate you!
Oh, so you say you're not angry enough yet? Well, let's take a look at a few of the teams that the betting public thinks have chance at winning a Super Bowl than the Houston Texans. How about the Dallas Cowboys, who are breaking in a new head coach, and haven't been a relevant playoff team since before Facebook was invented. They're 16/1, about half the length of the Texans' semi-long odds. Hey, remember the Atlanta Falcons? The Texans beat them 53-32 in Week 5 this past season. They're 25/1 to win the whole thing. How about the Bears? Yes, a team quarterbacked by MITCHELL TRUBISKY has shorter Super Bowl odds than the Texans. They, too, are 25/1, as are the Los Angeles Chargers, who are the epitome of self-inflicted wounds, have no home field advantage to speak of (their city largely hates them from their time as the San Diego Chargers), and their quarterback is either going to be ancient Philip Rivers or a brand new rookie. These teams are all seen as a bigger threat than the O'Brien-led Texans.

Now this one is strange.....
Somehow, the team that has plowed through the opposition behind Derrick Henry toting the rock about 35 times a game, the Tennessee Titans, is at 501, behind not only the Texans and their 33/1 ilk, but also the Buffalo Bills (40/1). They're tied with the Jaguars, Broncos, and Raiders. That can mean one (or both) of two things — either the oddsmakers think that this run by Ryan Tannehill has been a total fluke, and/or they think Derrick Henry could leave in free agency. Either way, it's strange watching the Cinderella of these playoffs that far down the odds board.

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.

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