If you had asked a Houston Texan fan before the season if they’d sign up for a 10-5 record through 15 games, I think most would have accepted that, especially considering the Vegas sportsbooks had them pegged as a 9.5 win team before the season. Certainly, all of them would have signed up for a 10-5 record after an 0-3 start to the season.
There were two things, however, that we didn’t see coming, one detrimental and one very fortuitous. Let’s start with the difficult part. For the last several years, a 10-5 record would have the Texans way, WAY out in front in the AFC South. This season, with the Jaguars sitting at 11-4, it’s good enough for a 7-seed, the last spot in the AFC dance.
Now, the flip side to all of this is that nobody, and I mean NOBODY, anticipated an AFC playoff picture without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Very few people could anticipate an AFC playoff picture where the top two seeds are the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, two teams whose quarterbacks are a combined 0-1 in the playoffs in their careers.
So, what is the point here? The point is that, while being the 7-seed isn’t ideal, this is a season where a 7-seed can make some noise in the playoffs. Also, it’s far from a done deal that the Texans will be the 7-seed in the AFC. Hell. There’s still a scenario, actually, where they could end up the 1-seed:
Here are the current AFC standings, with the percentage chance of each team making the postseason and likely seeding, according to PlayoffStatus.com:
1. Broncos, 12-3 (100% playoff chances, 47% 1-seed)
2. Patriots, 12-3 (100% playoff chances, 37% 2-seed)
3. Jaguars, 11-4 (100% playoff chances, 46% 3-seed)
4. Steelers, 9-6 (98% playoff chances, 98% 4-seed)
5. Chargers, 11-4 (100% playoff chances, 33% 7-seed)
6. Bills, 11-4 (100% playoff chances, 52% 5-seed)
7. Texans, 10-5 (97% playoff chances, 47% 1-seed)
————————
8. Colts. 8-7 (3% playoff chances, 3% 7-seed)
9. Ravens, 7-8 (2% playoff chances, 2% 4-seed)
So the seven teams in the playoffs are pretty much sewn up, but the fact that the Texans are one of the teams that hasn’t made it a finality yet, that makes me nervous. So here are the things you need to know going into the final week.
Wait, the 7-8 Ravens can still get into the playoffs?
Yes, mathematically they can still catch the Steelers to win the AFC North, if they win out and the Steelers lose out. The two teams play each other in Week 18. Basically, the AFC North this season is what the AFC South has been for a decade now — by rule, someone has to get in.
The Texans can still win the division, right?
Absolutely! If the Texans win their final two games, versus the Chargers this weekend and the Colts at home in Week 18, and the Jaguars lose one of their final two games (at the Colts, home versus the Titans), then the Texans will secure their third straight division crown.
So what does the nightmare “3 percent” scenario look like?
Well, that would get unlocked, first and foremost, by the Texans losing their final two games of the season. The Colts then would have to win out, including a win over the Texans in Week 18. Both teams would then be tied at 10-7, and that’s just the beginning. The two teams would also be tied for the first FOUR tiebreakers — head to head (1-1), division record (4-2), record versus common opponents (7-5), conference record (8-4). It would come down to the fifth tie breaker, strength of victory, which is obviously fluid for the final two weeks. Crazy scenario, that I am terrified of seeing.
What’s it gonna look like for the Texans after this weekend?
Well, I’ll have my prediction for the game against the Chargers on Friday in this space, but here are the scenarios to root for:
- Texans win, Jaguars lose — Texans 3-seed going into Week 18
- Texans win, Bills lose — Texans 5-seed going into Week 18
- Texans win, Jags and Bills win — Texans 6-seed going into Week 18
- Texans lose — Texans 7-seed going into Week 18….
….and we all pray for no drama in Week 18.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.