It’s not all that long ago, April of 2022 to be exact, that the Houston Texans’ opponent this coming Sunday, their AFC South rival Jacksonville Jaguars, were picking first overall in the NFL Draft. Now, here we are, 17 months later, and the Jaguars are the prohibitive favorite to win the AFC South, and they’re a dark horse candidate to win the AFC overall and go to the Super Bowl.
The Jags’ formula is pretty close to what the path is for the Texans — overload on draft picks, find a franchise quarterback, and fill in the blanks with some solid veterans in free agency. Whether the Texans’ plan works or not has a lot to do with just how good the Jaguars are. On Sunday, the Texans have a chance, as major underdogs mind you, to let the Jags know that it won’t be easy to just usurp the AFC South.
The Texans have won every road game against the Jaguars since 2017. All of those games, except for 2019, which was in London, took place in EverBank Stadium. That’s where Sunday’s game takes place. That’s where C.J. Stroud will try to send a message to Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence that dominating the AFC South will not come that easy.
The Texans are big underdogs, but a win is possible. Here are four things to watch for in Sunday afternoon’s game:
4. Josh Allen (no, not THAT Josh Allen, the OTHER one)
Even with left tackle Laremy Tunsil back this week from a Week 2 knee injury, the offensive line for the Texans is still a bit of a mess, and Stroud has already taken an inordinate number of hits this season. Through two weeks, Stroud has been sacked 11 times, and hit 19 times. Jacksonville’s pass rush linchpin is defensive end Josh Allen (not to be confused with Bills Pro Bowl QB Josh Allen), who had three sacks in Week 1 against the Colts. The Texans must keep Stroud clean from big hits, for the short term AND long term sake. Allen is the head of the snake for the Jags’ pass rush.
3. Pressure on Texans secondary
In 2022, the Jaguars were one of the few teams who decided to go deep into they salary cap space and spend major dollars on free agents. They signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, along with tight end Evan Engram, to contracts that felt like overpays at the time. Well, they al worked out. All three were productive players for the Jags in 2022. Then, they added premier WR Calvin Ridley, who wa suspended for the entire 2022 season for gambling, for some low level draft capital. My point with all this is that the Texans’ secondary will have their hands full with all of these weapons, and Lawrence throwing to them.
2. Week 1 Will
Will Anderson is going to be a great player for the Houston Texans. Not a good player, a GREAT player. However, he is still finding his footing in the NFL. In week 1, he was the best rookie defensive player in the NFL. In Week 2, he was a mere non factor, and a rookie who was chargrilled on Anthony Richardson’s second touchdown ruin of the game. This weekend, the Texans MUST be better in pressuring the opposing passer than they were against the Colts. Hell, it’s hard to be much worse than they were against the Colts, where they got literally one hit on the QB all day. Anderson is the most talented pass rusher on the team. He needs to have a day if the Texans plan to pull off the upset.
1. If you have to, let C.J. cook
In the second half of the loss to the Colts, down 31-10, for some reason Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was still executing an offensive game plan as if the Texans were in a dogfight with the Colts. He was running the football, burning clock, and moving slow. In between the inept decisions of Slowik, when given the chance to rip the ball downfield, rookie QB C.J. Stroud showed he was ready for the moment. Ultimately, Stroud threw for 384 yards against the Colts. If the Texans’ ground game stalls again versus the Jaguars, Slowik needs to abandon ship much sooner and lean on his young signal caller. Stroud has shown he is smart, tough, and ready for the moment. If necessary, let him cook.
PREDICTION: Jaguars 24, Texans 20
SPREAD: Texans +9.5
SEASON RECORD: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
