In the entire history of the franchise, the Houston Texans have now won eight AFC South titles. All of them have come since 2011, and not one time have the Texans entered the playoffs as a wild card team. It’s been a division title as the avenue, or there’s been on avenue at all.
Those are the raw numbers, eight division championships, and six of those resulting in a wild card round win in the first week of the postseason. We don’t need to discuss what happens each time from there, after the wild card round. We all know.
Beyond that, though, one of the interesting trends with the Texans is how the division titles have clustered throughout the last decade and a half. the eight division titles have been earned in four two-season pairs. In other words, it’s been four back-to-back division title pairings — 2011 and 2012, 2015 and 2016, 2018 and 2019, and then, finally, the last two seasons, 2023 and 2024.
That’s an interesting trend that becomes an awfully disturbing trend, when you consider what’s historically happened the season following each pair of division titles. Each time previously, the Texans have sustained one of their worst seasons in franchise history when going for a divisional three-peat. Here are the details:
2011 (10-6) and 2012 (12-4)
NEXT SEASON (2013): Texans go 2-14
BIGGEST REASON: Matt Schaub pick six parade
FALLOUT: Gary Kubiak fired, Bill O’Brien hired
A lot went wrong in 2013 — injuries to Brian Cushing and Arian Foster, the Ed Reed signing, Gary Kubiak suffering a stroke on the field, a rookie class full of knuckleheads — but the biggest drain on the team was Matt Schaub’s game falling off a cliff, highlighted by a penchant to throw a pick six every week until he was benched.
2015 (9-7) and 2016 (9-7)
NEXT SEASON (2017): Texans go 4-12
BIGGEST REASON: Deshaun Watson tears his ACL
FALLOUT: Rick Smith “leave of absence”, double down on O’Brien
For a team that was only 3-4 at the time Watson was injured, this was turning into one of the more fun seasons in Texans history. Watson was taking the league by storm, putting up historically good rookie numbers in just six starts. After Watson tore his ACL, the team went 1-8 down the stretch, and after the season, GM Rick Smith went on a leave of absence to take care of his ailing wife, a leave that never ended.
2018 (11-5) and 2019 (10-6)
NEXT SEASON (2020): Texans go 4-12
BIGGEST REASON: O’Brien ruins the team as the new GM
FALLOUT: O’Brien fired, Jack Easterby empowered to the gills
The most bizarre and depressing period in Texans history was launched after the 2019 postseason, after the Texans blew a 24-0 lead to the Chiefs in a playoff game. Bill O’Brien was named the GM of the team, and he and Jack Easterby proceeded to massacre the roster with bad trades and atrocious contracts. O’Brien would be fired four games into the 2020 regular season, with an 0-4 record. Easterby would be named interim GM. I’m breaking out in hives typing this paragraph.
So the big question is “Why will this time be different? Why should we expect success in the third season after a two season span of divisional dominance this time?”
I think the answers are pretty simple. First, simply put, this team has more talent, certainly than any of the O’Brien-coached teams, and talent on par with the Kubiak-coached teams. Defensively, the Texans are on the cusp of a world class level unit on that side of the ball, with a foundational pass rusher (Will Anderson) and foundational cover corner (Derek Stingley) who are both under 25 years old. Additionally, the quarterback and head coach are in place, and there is excellent synergy between DeMeco Ryans and GM Nick Caserio.
Now, if they wind up going 5-12 next season, please don’t come after me, saying I jinxed them. I’m just here to point out the numbers!
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
