Much has been made over the last week about a tropical disturbance that has steadily moved across the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast. On Sunday, we got our first glimpse of the rainfall as much of the Houston Metro area got between a half and one-and-a-half inches of rain. Rain continued to be scattered, but there is more to come.
The start of the work week is going to be wet, possibly VERY wet. Forecasts are calling for nearly a 100 percent chance of rain from Monday morning through early Tuesday. The National Weather Service is calling for rainfall amounts across Houston to range from 1 to 2 inches of rain on Monday, with higher amounts closer to the coast and lower amounts well inland.
Overall, the most hard hit areas (if you want to go that far) will probably accumulate around 3 to 4 inches of rain between Sunday and Tuesday, nothing we can't handle.
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The rain will begin to taper off by Tuesday afternoon, but we will continue to have a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers through Thursday as the atmosphere will remain fairly well saturated and afternoon heating will produce scattered showers. By Friday, only a typical summertime chance of afternoon storms will remain as we head into the weekend.
For the most part, all this rain will simply be good for us. We've been in near-drought conditions for a couple months, so this type of rain will do the entire area some good.
And the tropics, other than this rain producer, remain quiet. In fact, the National Hurricane Center has issued an El Niño watch, which means there is an increased chance of the phenomena in the tropical Pacific. El Niño conditions tend to depress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. Forecasters discussed though remained skeptical of the emergence of El Niño this year, but it appears more likely we will see those conditions at least this fall. If that timetable shifted slightly earlier into August, for example, it could mean a much quieter hurricane season than initially predicted.
But, as they say, it only takes one, so take all of that with a grain of salt.