This week brought us our first decent rain in what seemed like a couple weeks. A very weak cold front pushed through the Houston area on Tuesday and brought with it some widely scattered rain and thunderstorms. Most of the city got between a half to an inch-and-a-half of rain. Not too shabby considering where we had been.
The rest of this week has followed a typical pattern for Houston, but with lower rain chances. Basically, it's been hot, but the mornings have been just a little more pleasant than ten days ago or so when the mornings were already in the mid 80s.
As we move into the weekend, we should see a change that is likely to last until the early part of next week. There will be more rain in the forecast and slightly cooler temperatures before high pressure tries to reassert itself next week.
Friday will be sunny and warm with highs in the mid 90s, much like Wednesday and Thursday. It's Saturday when rain chances really increase. Moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico should sweep into the entire region dropping highs into the low 90s and bringing a fairly good chance of rain. Chances will remain into Sunday, though it appears Saturday will be the wettest of the two days.
Fortunately, that should keep temperatures down though you may have to dodge some rain. If you're going out, bring an umbrella.
Watching the Tropics
We have now officially entered the busiest part of the hurricane season with a peak the first week of September. Though some might consider our season quiet so far, having two storms in July is actually above average. On Wednesday, the hurricane experts at Colorado State University issued their August forecast, increasing the number of named storms and hurricanes by one each, owing to the increase in July. But, they dropped the number of major storms predicted to only one, which is remarkably low.
As we mentioned last week, sea surface temperatures are extremely cool in the Atlantic. Add to that a fresh batch of Saharan dust sweeping across the ocean and very high wind shear throughout the Caribbean, due to what many believe are the first inklings of El Niño, and it is all quiet. Still, the Gulf is very, very warm meaning the chance of a storm spinning up close to home is certainly possible, just not in the next week.