For the second time in the last few months, a rebuilding Houston professional sports team came away form its respective draft as one of the biggest stories of the night. Of course, back in April, it was the Houston Texans drafting a future franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and then making the trade heard ’round the world one pick later in selecting Will Anderson, Jr.
On Thursday night last week, it was a different brand of draft occurrence, but the Houston Rockets made some waves in their draft, as well. They held the 4th and 20th overall selection, and the 4th overall pick went according to the plan most speculated. They took guard Amen Thompson of Overtime Elite. The 20th overall selection, though, was the biggest “WOW” moment of draft night, not involving Victor Wembanyama (or his lovely sister).
Cam Whitmore, a one-and-done freshman from Villanova, largely forecasted to go in the top five or six picks, fell all the way to the 20th selection, and the Rockets scooped him up. Why Whitmore fell so precipitously in the draft is still something experts are kicking around early a week later. Medical issues, bad workouts, bad interviews — those have all been cited as contributing factors.
However, when you look at the odds board for NBA Rookie of the Year next season, it’s quite evident that the Rockets’ good fortune may pan out. Whitmore, the 20th selection, has the sixth best odds for the award, right behind his new teammate, Thompson (courtesy fo BetOnline.ag):
Rookie of the Year 2023/24
Victor Wembanyama 1/2 (-200)
Scoot Henderson 7/2 (+350)
Chet Holmgren 5/1 (+500)
Brandon Miller 10/1 (+1000)
Amen Thompson 14/1 (+1400)
Cam Whitmore 22/1 (+2200)
Ausar Thompson 25/1 (+2500)
Jarace Walker 25/1 (+2500)
Anthony Black 35/1 (+3500)
Gradey Dick 40/1 (+4000)
Taylor Hendricks 40/1 (+4000)
Cason Wallace 45/1 (+4500)
Bilal Coulibaly 50/1 (+5000)
So the Rockets have two of the very top rookies, at least heading into the season, in the NBA. Similarly, Stroud and Anderson enter their rookie seasons as top candidates for they sport’s rookie hardware. In fact, they’re considered even more likely than either of the Rockets’ rookies to win their sport’s Rookie of the Year awards.
First, here are the odds for NFL Offensive Rookie fo the Year:
Bijan Robinson RB Falcons +250
Bryce Young QB Panthers +500
Anthony Richardson QB Colts +600
CJ Stroud QB Texans +750
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Seahawks +800
Jahmyr Gibbs RB Lions +900
Jordan Addison WR Vikings +1700
Zay Flowers WR Ravens +1800
Quentin Johnston WR Chargers +2000
Will Levis QB Titans +2500
Zach Charbonnet RB Seahawks +2500
Jaylin Hyatt WR Giants +2800
Josh Downs WR Colts +2800
Hendon Hooker QB Lions +3000
Tyjae Spears RB Titans +3000
Devon Achane RB Dolphins +3500
Tank Bigsby RB Jaguars +3500
Cedric Tillman WR Browns +3500
Dalton Kincaid TE Bills +3500
Rashee Rice WR Chiefs +3500
And the odds for the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, where Anderson is currently the betting favorite:
Will Anderson EDGE Texans +350
Jalen Carter DL Eagles +650
Tyree Wilson EDGE Raiders +900
Devon Witherspoon CB Seahawks +900
Christian Gonzalez CB Lions +950
Jack Campbell ILB Lions +1400
Lukas Van Ness EDGE Packers +1500
Nolan Smith EDGE Eagles +1600
Emmanuel Forbes CB Commanders +1800
Will McDonald IV EDGE Jets +1800
Myles Murphy EDGE Bengals +2000
Deonte Banks CB Ravens +2000
Brian Branch S Lions +2000
Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE Chiefs +2000
Joey Porter Jr CB Steelers +2500
Calijah Kancey DL Buccaneers +2500
Drew Sanders ILB Broncos +3000
Trenton Simpson ILB Ravens +3000
BJ Ojulari EDGE Cardinals +3000
Cam Smith CB Dolphins +3500
Hell, even the Astros are in on this run of rookie stardom, with Hunter Brown currently among the top four candidates for American League Rookie of the Year:
Josh Jung (3B/SS, Rangers) +190
Masataka Yoshida (OF, Red Sox) +265
Gunnar Henderson (SS/3B, Orioles) +400
Hunter Brown (P, Astros) +950
Esteury Ruiz (2B, Athletics) +2800
Bryce Miller (P, Mariners) +3000
Royce Lewis (SS, Twins) +3000
Logan Allen (P, Guardians) +3500
Tanner Bibee (P, Guardians) +4000
Taj Bradley (P, Rays) +4000
Anthony Volpe (SS, Yankees) +5000
Yennier Cano (P, Orioles) +5000
Ryan Noda (1B, Athletics) +5000
Zach Neto (SS, Angels) +8000
So what needs to happen for each fo these players to win their sport’s respective rookie trophy? Let’s take them in order of their odds to win:
WILL ANDERSON +350
As the odds-on favorite, Anderson will get the benefit of the doubt, if it’s a close race between him and one or two other rookies. I think a double digit sack season, along with some significant improvement from the Texans’ defense overall, where he would be viewed as the catalyst for that, will win him the first Texans’ Defensive Rookie of the Year award since Anderson’s head coach, DeMeco Ryans, won it in 2006.
C.J. STROUD +750
First and foremost, the Texans need to win far more games than they have during the last three seasons. If they threaten a .500 record (say, eight or nine wins), then Stroud’s play will almost inherently have to be above average, especially considering he doesn’t have anything close to elite weapons in his receiving corps. Also, a Bijan Robinson injury or drug habit would help.
HUNTER BROWN +950
Overall, Brown has had a very solid first full year in the big leagues. Because of injuries to Lance McCullers, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia, Brown has become a far more crucial cog in the rotation than the team planned for. Consistency has been his biggest issue, as he is among the league leaders in seven inning (or more) starts, but also has seen some games unravel on him quickly. If he gets to 15 wins and his ERA gets down around 3.00, he’s got a shot.
AMEN THOMPSON +1400
CAM WHITMORE +2200
On a team with so many young core pieces already, and in a league where it feels like they’ve already engraved Wembanyama’s name on the Rookie fo the Year trophy, it will be a near impossibility for either Thompson or Whitmore to make a big enough impact to win the award. Of the two, I’d say the best route exists for Thompson, if he becomes the starting point guard for a team that improves from also-ran to a fringe playoff team (and Wembanyama gets abducted by aliens).
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
