If you are a dude with some bad ass, heavy duty waders or a lady with some adorable rain boots, pull them out of the closet and dust them off because you will need them this weekend. With a tropical wave forecast to move in our direction, the atmosphere should be primed for some fairly heavy rain starting on Saturday.
First, a quick recap. If you have been outside at all this week, you know what it's been like. Summer time in Houston is in full effect with highs in the mid 90s and plenty of sunshine. Like most summers, there are lots of stray clouds around to occasionally block the sun, but they really only serve to remind you how miserable you were the rest of the day.
All that should change pretty dramatically over the weekend and into early next week.
We talked yesterday about a tropical disturbance that will be moving our way and should begin affecting our weather as early as Saturday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center continues to remain skeptical that this trough of low pressure will amount to anything more than a rainmaker as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. They place odds of development over the next five days at less than 20 percent.
Additionally, most of the computer forecasting models aren't seeing much in the way of development from the system before it meanders across the Gulf and eventually moves inland.
So, what does that mean for us? The good news is we don't really have to worry about a significant storm hitting the Texas coast. The good/bad news is even though the system isn't expected to turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, it should bring with it quite a bit of rain.
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How much is a question no one can answer just yet, but it seems like 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals higher than that are certainly possible. For the moment, areas south of Interstate 10 and east of U.S. 69 look to be the most vulnerable, but that could change. Regardless, the entire upper coast of Texas should definitely get a decent soaking.
That is a good thing for a region that is on the verge of drought conditions and because it has been so dry, the ground and watersheds should be able to take a pretty good pounding. But, this is Houston and some flash flooding, particularly street flooding, could occur.
The timing of the system suggests the worst of it will be between later in the day Sunday and early Tuesday morning. It ought to be a very messy commute to start the work week.
Might be a good binge watching weekend, but if you do have to go out, better bring the rain gear.