4

Hurricane Predictions: Feds Say to Hunker Down

^
Keep Houston Press Free
I Support
  • Local
  • Community
  • Journalism
  • logo

Support the independent voice of Houston and help keep the future of Houston Press free.

The time to predict hurricane season has arrived, and -- as with Texans season previews -- what's predicted doesn't always tend to be what happens.

So get your grain of salt ready. (On the other hand, severe weather has been the norm elsewhere in the U.S. recently, so perhaps it is our time in the barrel.)

A "normal" hurricane season would have 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The predictions of the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): 12 to 18 named storms, six to ten hurricanes, three to six major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher).

"The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "However, we can't count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

Why not? Why can't we count on luck? It worked last time!!

Here are your factors, weather geeks:

-- The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

-- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.

-- La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

So our advice: Invest in plywood futures. And canned-food companies.

Keep the Houston Press Free... Since we started the Houston Press, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Houston, and we would like to keep it that way. Offering our readers free access to incisive coverage of local news, food and culture. Producing stories on everything from political scandals to the hottest new bands, with gutsy reporting, stylish writing, and staffers who've won everything from the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi feature-writing award to the Casey Medal for Meritorious Journalism. But with local journalism's existence under siege and advertising revenue setbacks having a larger impact, it is important now more than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" membership program, allowing us to keep covering Houston with no paywalls.

We use cookies to collect and analyze information on site performance and usage, and to enhance and customize content and advertisements. By clicking 'X' or continuing to use the site, you agree to allow cookies to be placed. To find out more, visit our cookies policy and our privacy policy.

 

Join the Press community and help support independent local journalism in Houston.

 

Join the Press community and help support independent local journalism in Houston.