Invest 93L, as designated by the National Hurricane Center, is not terribly impressive. Despite predictions it would be nearing tropical storm strength by now, it has floundered, fighting with dry air in the area north of the storm and high wind shear. Would be Tropical Storm Bertha is simply not all that impressive at the moment.
In fact, the NHC has lowered its previous forecast for 93L to only a 40 percent chance of development. As the disturbance moves west northwest over the next two days, it should encounter more favorable conditions, which increases the likelihood of development. Even if that happens, there is a good chance it will interact with land in the northern Caribbean, slowing its progress.
And even if 93L manages to reach named storm status, it doesn't appear likely it will be a threat to anyone in the U.S. All the reliable forecasts are in agreement that whatever the storm is called -- if anything -- it will probably recurve out to sea before coming near the eastern seaboard, let alone tracking into the Gulf of Mexico.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't remain watchful. We are entering the start of the peak of hurricane season, which stretches from the beginning of August through mid September. Our chances for a hurricane along the Texas coast fall precipitously after September 21 even though hurricane season officially lasts through the end of November.
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