Hurricane Season 2014: Tropics Finally Heating Up as August Approaches

The National Hurricane Center has designated and area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 93L. It gives these designations throughout hurricane season to make note of systems that have the potential to develop. It is currently giving 93L a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves westward towards the Lesser Antilles.

Of the primary reliable forecast models, only one is predicting 93L will not develop leaving the NHC to conclude there is greater likelihood 93L could be a depression or possibly Tropical Storm Bertha by this weekend.

There are still plenty of inhibiting factors for 93L that include dry air, Saharan dust over the Atlantic and still only modest sea surface temperatures in its path, but assuming it can survive a couple days, it should begin to grow as it nears the Caribbean.

Where it goes from there is still too difficult to forecast. Forecasts beyond five days are extremely unreliable and can change with every run of the forecast computer models. At the moment, they are suggesting a turn northwest just before the Caribbean islands and perhaps a threat to the U.S. eastern seaboard, but that is a long way off.

One of the forecast models is suggesting a second disturbance could form right behind 93L. Given the time of year, this isn't a far fetched scenario. We are entering the peak of hurricane season and clearly the tropics are beginning to respond.

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