When it comes to being a fan for your NFL team, and factoring in the long term prospects for your squad, there are really two ways to do it. The first way is the more fun way, which is to live in the moment, and worry about re-signing your players and the salary cap sometime in down the road (or NEVER worry about it at all). That’s the fun, yet less responsible way.
Then there is the other mode of NFL fan, who look at every contract extension handed out around the league at any given time and think about what that contract may mean for future free agents and internal re-signings. They practically wring their hands over it. Confession — I am one of THOSE fans. So when Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa signed massive contract extensions this past weekend, I thought of one person — C.J. Stroud.
I’ll get to Stroud in a moment, but in case you missed it, over the weekend, the Miami Dolphins signed Tagovailoa to a four year, $212.4 million deal, and the Green Bay Packers inked Jordan Love to a four year, $220 million contract. (Love shares an agent with Stroud, the venerable David Mulugheta.) So here is what the tapestry of the NFL QB market, based on average annual value of the contracts, looks like as we wake up on Tuesday morning:
So what does this all mean, for the league and, eventually, for the Houston Texans? Let’s dig in:
That list of top paid quarterbacks is kind of scary, in a bad way
If you look at the list above in Eisen’s tweet, and you don’t pay attention to the quarterback contract market on a regular basis, you’re probably looking at those top eight names and saying “Really? REALLY?”, which makes sense. I could poke holes in every one of those names on that list, as to whether or not they deserve to be there. Watch me:
* Love — He’s only had one half of a good season!
* Lawrence — He’s a turnover machine, and he, too, has had one half of a good season!
* Burrow — Yeah, he made a Super Bowl, but he has finished two of his four season on injured reserve!
* Tagovailoa — He’s never won a playoff game, and he needs elite, ELITE weapons to look good!
* Goff — Is he good without Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator?!
* Herbert — What’s he ever won? He blew a 27-0 lead in his only playoff game! TO TREVOR LAWRENCE!
* Jackson — Two time MVP, but can’t win the big one in the playoffs!
* Hurts — Made a Super Bowl, but the league seemed to figure him out last season!
That list is a stark indicator of the league’s mentality, where an average quarterback at least guarantees relevance, so hey, let’s pay an average guy big money!
Dak Prescott is lurking, ready to blow the roof off that list
Meanwhile, in Dallas, the Cowboys have been kicking several potential contract extensions down the road. WR CeeDee Lamb and LB Micah Parsons are looking for their contract extensions off their rookie contracts, but the big one is QB Dak Prescott, who is in the final year of the extension he signed four years ago. His cap hit for this season is well north of $50 million. Prescott holds are the cards right now, because the Cowboys, for some reason, agreed to a clause in which they cannot use the franchise tag after this season to retain him for at least one more season. If Prescott plays this season out, he will be a free agent next offseason, and he will blow the roof off the QB contract market, likely exceeding $60 million per season. Just in time for….
What is C.J. Stroud’s main motivation?
…. C.J. Stroud to be eligible for an extension in 2026!
Let’s get this out of the way right now — if Stroud wants to get his maximum value, he is not getting a penny less than $60 million, especially if Prescott resets the market at that level a year from now. The main variable in the Stroud situation, assuming he continues to play good football and remains healthy (which I acknowledge are also significant variables), is whether or not he wants to do what Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, and take a team friendly deal to allow the Texans to build around him easier.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
