For the eighth straight season, the Houston Astros are battling down the stretch for an AL West title, and eventually another trip to, at the very least, the ALCS in the postseason. We are used to this here. Another thing we are used to is future contract drama lurking as a backdrop. It’s a function of having really good players. When you have really good players, eventually you have to pay them.
This season, Alex Bregman’s future with the Astros has been a topic all year. He will be a free agent after the season, and it seems like many folks, locally and nationally, are conceding that Bregman will be playing somewhere else in 2025, citing owner Jim Crane’s lack of desire to dish out the eight to ten year deal Bregman night be seeking.
Personally, I don’t think there’s a sane team out there ready to give Alex Bregman an eight year deal, let alone a decade long deal. Bregman is a really good overall player. Offensively, he is above average, but not a guy who carries a team. Defensively, he is damn near elite. Health wise, the self-proclaimed “gremlins” in his right elbow are the only health hiccup in three years. For a playoff team, he’s a great investment on a reasonable length deal.
If you’re pessimistic about the Astros retaining Bregman, I think some good news came down last week. Matt Chapman is the third baseman for the San Francisco Giants. He was hoping for a big pay day in free agency last year, and was forced to settle for a three year deal, $54 million deal, with player options after each season. This is similar to the deal Carlos Correa signed with Minnesota after the 2021 season.
In some ways, it was Chapman betting on himself. Well, the bet paid off, as Chapman, in the middle of the first year of that deal, got the Giants back to the bargaining table and was rewards with a six year, $151 million deal, a little over $25 million per year. Astros fans, THIS is the template to retain Bregman. Allow me to point out why the Chapman deal is the perfect blueprint for Bregman to get a similar deal, if Crane is willing to play ball.
The career arc for both is very similar
Age wise, the two are less than a year apart, with Chapman (age 31) being 11 months Bregman’s senior. Both came into the league within a season of each other, Bregman in 2016 and Chapman in 2017, and came out of the gates like gangbusters. Bregman and Chapman were top seven in the MVP balloting in the American League in both 2018 and 2019. However, that would be, until further notice, the last time that each would perform at THAT level. Since, 2020, they’ve both been very good, but not elite baseball players.
They both profile similarly, offensively and defensively
Getting a little more granular with the similarities between Bregman and Chapman, since the MVP level performances of 2018 and 2019, they’ve each leveled off offensively, with Chapman posting a .755 OPS and Bregman a .795 OPS. Chapman has won four Gold Gloves in his career, and while Bregman has not been recognized to that level, he is an elite defensive third baseman. So in short, the two are close to equals overall, with Bregman holding a slight offensive edge, and Chapman a slight defensive edge. In the all important category of career Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Bregman holds the edge at 38.6 versus Chapman’s 37.8 total WAR.
Most importantly, they are both “Scott Boras” guys
Oddly enough, amidst the “practically identical twin” career arcs of these two, the biggest factor in helping get a deal done might be their representation. Both are clients of super agent Scott Boras. This doesn’t necessarily make it a lock that Bregman could wind up with a deal in the neighborhood of Chapman’s. Boras works for Bregman, so if Alex is hellbent on getting a longer deal than six years, it’s Boras’ job to either find that deal, or find a suitable Plan B. However, no agent is going to have a clearer view on what exactly the market is for Bregman than Boras.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
