On Wednesday, things were mostly quiet in our area while central and north Texas were hammered with rain thanks to a slow moving cold front. After Tuesday, when certain areas northeast and southwest of downtown received up to 10 inches of rain, it was a welcome break. But, there is plenty more rain on the way and a continued risk of flooding right through until Saturday.
One of the very difficult job of forecasters in our part of the world is figuring out how to predict what will happen in a region that covers 1,000-plus square miles. As we saw on Tuesday, while some neighborhoods saw barely a trace of rain, Kingwood and Sugar Land were inundated.
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The day-long break from the rain for the region was welcome and allowed much of the city to dry out, although some occasionally heavy rain swept through downtown and to the southwest for a while after 9 p.m. Receding bayou and streets will definitely help to curb additional flooding as the weekend approaches, but the ground is still saturated so any heavy rain isn't going to soak in.
Thursday should begin like Wednesday with chances of thunderstorms increasing through the afternoon. As a front sags into southeast Texas, the heaviest rains will likely form along and south of the frontal boundary. At this point, no one can really predict where that will be, but forecasters are suggesting it could be along Interstate 10.
We could see a break overnight and into the morning hours, but storms should ramp up again on Friday as that front wobbles around the area throughout the day and evening. Friday night appears to be the highest chances of heavy rain, but it will be Saturday morning into the midday hours before we finally start to see some clearing.
Forecasts are calling for 5 to 8 inches of rain between Thursday and Sunday with isolated areas of up to 10 inches. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to predict where those higher totals will be. If we were to put money on it, we'd probably be wary of some of the same areas that got hammered on Tuesday, southwest and northeast of Houston, but the best advice we could give is to pay attention and try to stay off the roads until Sunday.