After a couple days worth of rain thanks to a tropical wave — the first good rain the area has seen in a while — get set for round two this weekend.
A tropical wave the National Hurricane Center has given an 80 percent chance of developing into a depression or tropical storm by the end of the week is headed toward the central Texas coastline. While it is not expected to be a particularly powerful storm in terms of wind, it will be a rain maker. And with Houston on the right side of the storm, we should get plenty of that beginning Friday.
The wave is currently a disorganized mess but it does have some circulation, the first earmarks of a developing system. If it had more time over water before landfall, it might be a bit more of a threat to become this season's first hurricane, but it doesn't and it will likely be impacted by some dry air in the upper atmosphere as it approaches Texas.
That dry air along with a fairly rapid westerly movement should, to a degree, inhibit the amount of rainfall we see. Expect 2-3 inches of rain throughout the metro area with more closer to the coast. There are always going to be some isolated areas that will get more. Much of Texas, in fact, will get rainfall out of this one as it sweeps inland and out into central and west-central Texas.
If you weren't already thinking about hurricane season, this week is a good time to start paying attention and making preparations. Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed in the central Atlantic and probably will be the season's first hurricane. However, dry air to its north and wind shear ahead of it will probably spell an end to Gonzalo as it reaches the Caribbean. Behind that is another wave with somewhat better chances to develop and threaten the U.S. coastline, but that is still at least ten days out and forecasts are notoriously iffy even just a few days ahead.
This weekend, expect widespread rain and thunderstorms similar to Monday and Tuesday. Both Friday and Saturday appear to be the worst of it, but there should be some remaining moisture in the atmosphere into Sunday as well making for a rather wet weekend. There could be some localized street flooding, but it doesn't appear any widespread flooding is expected.