The dry pattern that has persisted in our area the last couple weeks thanks to dominant high pressure began to come to an end last week with a couple damp days including Saturday. With high pressure remaining off to the west, Houston will see chances of rain increase throughout the work week, particularly in the afternoons.
Monday will probably be our best rain chances until the end of the week. Expect scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm, particularly in the afternoon. Chances will drop to a more manageable 20 to 30 percent Tuesday through Thursday, but don't be surprised if you run into some afternoon showers every day.
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One thing to keep in mind is that Houston huge area makes it tough to predict exactly where rain will fall. On Saturday, for example, there were parts of town that got upwards of three inches while other spots didn't see so much as a drop.
By Friday, there will be a slight uptick in rain chances heading into the weekend. In fact, our best chances are likely next weekend before high pressure reasserts itself early next week. For this week, however, don't be surprised if you have the umbrella out quite a bit.
Watching the Tropics
The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet as we enter our second of eight peak weeks of hurricane season. Cooler ocean temperatures, high wind shear and a prevalence of dry air and Saharan dust has forecast models, which typically show some activity even if they are overzealous in their predictions, aren't showing much. It is particularly quiet in the main development zone west of the Cape Verde Islands where storms often form this time of year. We still have a good seven weeks to go, however, so keep an eye on it.