It begins with training camp in the squelching heat of July, and it feels like we are eons away from nut-cutting time in the NFL postseason. Then, the season flies by, and before you know it, the playoffs are upon us, and for the seventh time in franchise history, here the Houston Texans sit with a chance to get to an AFC title game.
The last six trips this deep into the playoffs have gone poorly for the Texans. They’re 0-6, with a very symmetrical history of two losses apiece to the Ravens, Patriots, and Chiefs. This Sunday, it will be the Patriots, once again, with a chance to surpass the Ravens and Chiefs in the “ass whoopings of the Houston Texans in the divisional round” department.
I have a sneaking suspicion, though, that this time around will be different. Look at the spreads on the Texans’ previous six trips to the divisional round of the playoffs:
- 2024 – at KC +10
- 2023 – at BAL +10
- 2019 – at KC +10
- 2016 – at NE +16
- 2012 – at NE +9.5
- 2011 – at BAL +7.5
Every spread is over a touchdown, and four of them are double digits. Hell, the last time the Texans traveled to New England, the spread was 16 damn points! (Thanks, Brock Osweiler!) This time around the spread is a measly three points, with the Patriots favored. In other words, this is anybody’s game. The Texans can make history on Sunday, and here are four things to watch for, as we root for history to be made:
4. Ignore the mystique and the yips
For the Texans, as a franchise, it’s not just the two playoff losses. By and large, the Patriots have owned the Texans in Foxboro, MA. The one glaring exception was last year’s 41-21 Texans win in Drake Maye’s first start. This is the Patriots’ first trip back to the postseason since 2021. They throttled the Chargers on Sunday night at Gillette Stadium. The Texans cannot get caught up in the atmosphere. Particularly, C.J. Stroud can’t have the same nervous yips that he had on Monday in Pittsburgh, where he fumbled five times. Yes, FIVE TIMES. Flirting with that kind of disaster will spell doom for the Texans.
3. Run the ball
One way to keep the pressure off of Stroud is to run the football the same way they did on Monday against the Steelers. Woody Marks ran 19 times for 112 yards. Nick Chubb ran 10 times for 48 yards. Both guys ran with physicality and decisiveness, and most encouraging, the Texans ran the ball at the end of the game, when the Steelers knew it was coming and there was no Nico Collins out there. If the Texans average five yards a carry again, they win this game.
2. Next man up (out wide)
Speaking of Collins, there’s a very good chance that he misses the game on Sunday with his second concussion of the season. Collins has been the Texans’ best offensive player this season, and he will be missed. However, unlike the last couple postseasons, the Texans have more weapons in the passing game to take up the slack. Christian Kirk leads all players in receiving yards in the playoffs, after one week of the postseason. Jayden Higgins has contributed six touchdowns this year, and tight end Dalton Schultz actually leads the team in receptions with 82. It’ll be up to Stroud to spread the ball around, like he did during the first game Collins missed with a concussion in Week 8 versus San Francisco. In that game Stroud completed 30 of 38 for 318 yards.
1. Drake Maye’s legs
Last week, smothering the Steelers’ offense was pretty formulaic, for one big reason — Aaron Rodgers is old, slow, and you knew exactly where he would be when it came time to rush the passer. This game on Sunday will feature the polar opposite of that dynamic. Drake Maye can RUN. In fact, he ran for 698 yards and seven touchdowns this season. This will look a lot more like the challenge Josh Allen poses defenses with his athleticism.
SPREAD: Texans +3
PREDICTION: Texans 23, Patriots 20
SEASON RECORD: 12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.