We are in the home stretch of the NFL season now, and as we’ve discussed this week, the AFC playoff picture, in terms of who will be participating, is pretty much set in stone. Where exactly the seven teams will land in terms of seeding, though, is a jumbled mess. On top of that, the Texans have not locked up a playoff spot yet. They are a healthy 97 percent chance to be inside the velvet ropes, but technically, they’re still standing next to the bouncer.
On top of ALL that, the team they play tomorrow (YES! SATURDAY GAME ALERT!), the Los Angeles Chargers, is one of the teams they are chasing for seeding. The Chargers, like the Texans, still could fall anywhere from the 1-seed to the 7-seed. The AFC is bananas this season!
We will see exactly how bananas this game will be on Saturday, as both teams come in with wildly banged up offensive lines, which means it could be a good day to take all of your Christmas money, and take the OVER on every prop bet for sacks that you can find. That’s my investment advice. Now here are my things to watch for in the game this weekend:
4. Revenge factor
The last time these two teams met, the Chargers were also a small favorite (like they are on Saturday). However, last year it was at NRG Stadium, and it was in the playoffs. Justin Herbert came into that game having thrown just three picks all season, and the Texans picked him off four times. The Texans turned a close game into a 32-12 rout. That has to stick in the craw of Herbert and head coach Jim Harbaugh. They will be extra motivated to ruin the Texans’ holiday season.
3. Special teams
This game is more likely to be a defensive struggle than it is a shootout, and thus, special teams will come into play more acutely. Jaylin Noel’s had numerous big kick and punt returns for the Texans this season, so his flipping field position once or twice in this game would be huge. A close, low scoring game means both kickers will be front and center. The Chargers’ Cameron Dicker was named to the Pro Bowl this week, and the Texans’ Ka’imi Fairbairn is on a roll right now, with three field goals last Sunday, all 49 yards or longer. It’s not sexy, but the kicking game is big in this one.
2. Angry defensive line dogs
The Texans’ defense has been undoubtedly elite all season, but they’ve also caught some decent injury luck with opposing offensive line injuries. It started in Week 2, with the Bucs playing without Tristan Wirfs, and continued in recent weeks. The Chiefs were without three of their starters in Week 14, and the Cardinals were without Paris Johnson two weeks ago. The Chargers continue this trend, as they’ve lost a half dozen tackles two injury this season. Austin Deculus, former Texans castoff, might start at tackle, which is bad news for Herbert. This needs to be a Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter fireworks show on Saturday.
1. Trench warfare issues
Of course, now we can count the Texans among the teams experiencing medical issues on the offensive line, as both of their starting tackles finished the win over the Raiders on the bench with injuries, Aireontae Ersery with a hand injury, and Trent Brown limping off with a knee injury. Ersery had surgery on his hand earlier this week, and could return later in the season or in the playoffs. It appears he will not play on Saturday. One of the hallmarks of this seven game wining streak had been continuity on the offensive line, and now the unit could be a jumbled circus against a very good defense.
SPREAD: Texans +1.5
PREDICTION: Texans 20, Chargers 17
SEASON RECORD: 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.