“Man, we’re just so young.” Those were the words uttered by Rockets coach Stephen Silas after a 117-107 loss to the Hawks in the season opener on Wednesday night. His comments were in response to a question about mistakes made that cost the team a chance at a win against the talented Atlanta squad, and how he spoke to his assistant coaches about his group.
The Rockets only won 20 games last year, the worst record in the league and the second straight season they finished at the bottom of the NBA standings. In the first year, it, along with some savvy trade moves, landed them four first round picks including the number two overall Jalen Green. This year, they grabbed three more including number three pick Jabari Smith, Jr. But that leaves them with a core of talent that is mostly under the age of 24.
And, as the saying goes, this is a man’s league.
The result will be another losing season and plenty of frustration, but the measurements of success, much like last year, will be geared toward progress rather than W’s. There will still be some things to look for that will help them get beyond the 20-win mark of last year and possibly eclipsing the 23.5 over/under number set by Las Vegas before the season began.
Defense wins…ballgames.
This was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last year. Young teams often are. And even if the don’t suddenly make the leap to top ten in that category — they won’t — clawing their way into the middle of the pack would be a huge improvement. Drafting Smith and Tari Eason and adding Bruno Fernando should help, but this will have to be a team defensive effort, particularly in the backcourt.
Green and Kevin Porter, Jr. are going to be relied upon heavily for their scoring, but any improvement in their defense will pay immediate dividends. Both have the requisite skills to be solid on the defensive end of the floor, and they will need to set the tone on the perimeter. New players and schemes will help that, but the more energy they pour into D, the more likely the Rockets will be to turn L’s into W’s.
Focusing on winning tendencies, not just winning results.
There is always plenty of talk about progress from individual players: better shooting, better defense, smarter decisions. But, more than that, the Rockets need to figure out who these guys are and point them in the right direction. Silas is going to want to find out what each player does well and find out not just how to exploit that, but how to expand upon it. This will be measure incrementally during the season, but it should be noticeable.
It’s a tough gig, determining where guys will be best on the floor and, more critically, how each of them fit with the others. It will undoubtedly lead to a lot of mistakes. As Silas pointed out after the loss in Atlanta, these guys have only played five games together, and those are just the ones who weren’t injured. The process we are supposed to trust isn’t just based around making Green a future scoring champion or KPJ into Chris Paul-light. It’s about putting all of them in the best position to succeed and hammering away at that all season long, sometimes for the worse in the short term, but ultimately for the better down the road.
Improved shooting.
It is a make or miss league and the Rockets miss a LOT of shots. This is not for lack of trying. As per usual, they will once again be a volume three point shooting team, owing to a philosophy that values analytics alongside talent. But, don’t be surprised if Green, Smith and other lean into midrange shots as well because ANY shots they can land will be good ones. Young teams have a tendency to struggle in half court sets. While the Rockets will certainly be at the top of the league in pace when all is said and done, good teams will try to force them to play slow and the only way to beat that effectively is by hitting shots.
Green, Porter, Jr. and Smith, who shot over 40 percent from behind the arc in college, should be able to improve, especially with more catch-and-shoot threes rather than shots off the dribble. Eric Gordon should remain one of the team’s best from distance. But, can Alperen Sengun and Jae’Sean Tate add improved shooting to their offensive games? Will KJ Martin and Josh Christopher and Eason get better from the field? Those role players will go a long way in determining just how successful the Rockets are on the offensive end of the floor this year.
Core talent learning how to play together.
While it isn’t a foregone conclusion, with Porter, Jr. and Tate both signing extensions and the young players drafted the last two years just getting started, it feels like the Rockets have most of what will, hopefully, be the core of a winning team in a few years. That might also include another high pick this season depending on their record, but nothing should be more important than figuring out how to help KPJ, Green, Tate, Smith, Sengun, Eason and Josh Christopher, among others, learn to be great together.
It won’t be easy and it will certainly not happen overnight, but it has to be the single more important measure of progression for the franchise going forward. They cannot afford to waste seasons where the losses may pile up and it is if not expected, at least tolerated. If they are going to sacrifice winning for building a champion, the clock is ticking on figuring that out. This season should be devoted nearly entirely to that pursuit.
Final Season Record Prediction: 25-57
Jeff Balke covers the Astros and Rockets weekly for the Houston Press and co-hosts the Bleav in Astros podcast with former third baseman and current Astros broadcaster Geoff Blum. Follow him on Twitter.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
