Ten weeks in, dozens of bets, and now here we sit at .500. I'm not happy about this, because in the gambling world, thanks to the devil's creation known as the "vig," we don't make any money unless we are at roughly 53 percent or greater in picking winners. That's where I'm looking to get to by month's end, so we can go into holiday shopping season with a profit and some confidence.
So, without further ado, let's pick some Week 11 NFL games, shall we?
DOLPHINS +5.5 over Bills
If you're looking for the guy who's been on the Dolphins bandwagon over the last few weeks, you're reading him right now! I bet the Dolphins a few weeks ago against the Steelers on Monday night, and they led into the second half before falling apart. That didn't stop me from backing them the next week against the woeful Jets as a home dog, and I was rewarded with an outright win. Last week, once Brian Hoyer was inserted as the starting QB, I backed the Dolphins on my radio show (didn't give them out here, because no line was available when I wrote my post). The Dolphins then beat the Colts ON THE ROAD OUTRIGHT. If you think I'm not backing them against Josh Allen and the Bills, getting five-plus points at home, then you don't know my distaste for Josh Allen and his strong but scattershot right arm. GO FIGHTING FITZYS!
Texans +4.5 over RAVENS
If you read my preview piece on this game, then you know that I am picking the Texans outright to beat the Ravens. So why wouldn't I make them one of my best bet plays here? Answer — I AM MAKING THEM ONE OF MY BEST BETS! I think this will come down to which quarterback makes more plays, and I like Deshaun Watson in practically any instance where that's the difference. The road won't scare him, and I feel VERY strongly Watson will keep this a field goal margin game. Also, the Texans coming off the bye week is big, as Bill O'Brien is 4-1 SU and ATS coming off the bye, with three SU wins as an underdog.
VIKINGS -10 over Broncos
Man, this feels weird — backing Kirk Cousins, but this is much more about backing Mike Zimmer, who if you just bet him blindly ATS at home as a head coach that wins for you 57 percent of the time. This Denver team is spunky, but Zimmer should have some schemes in his back pocket for Broncos QB Brandon Allen, making his second career start.
Patriots -3.5 over EAGLES
Can we have a revenge angle for a Super Bowl that was played nearly two seasons ago? Sure, why not, especially when the losing head coach is the most petty human being walking the face of the earth, Bill Belichick. The Patriots have had two weeks to stew over their first loss of the season, an embarrassing 37-20 loss to the Ravens where they were outplayed on every level. Belichick is 14-5 coming off the bye week as Pats head coach, and yes, the Eagles are coming off the bye, as well, but I am trusting Belichick's combination of anger, vengefulness, and preparation to carry us to an ATS win here.
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Cardinals +13.5 over 49ERS
Look, the 49ers are really good, especially defensively, and I think they will win this game, and might not really be threatened in doing so. However, MAN, 13.5 points is a LOT of points against a team like Arizona that is a 53-man backdoor cover waiting to happen in every game that they play. I feel like the Niners could be up by 24 points in the third quarter, and there's still a decent chance I squeeze a cover out of this game. The Cardinals have been more competitive than I expected this season. I'll take the double digit points on a division underdog, a gambling staple.
CHARGERS +4 over Chiefs
The Chargers play down to terrible teams and play up to the level of good teams. Even having lost three of their last five games SU, the Chiefs still qualify as a good team. A really good team, actually. The Chiefs are a really good team, with a really piss poor defense (sorry, Tyrann Mathieu). At 4-6, the Chargers' season is teetering on the brink of being finished, and a win here keeps hope alive in a parity-ridden AFC. I like Philip Rivers and company to keep this thing inside of field goal.
LAST WEEK: 4-2
SEASON NFL ATS RECORD: 30-30 (50.0 percent)