It’s strange that it’s still going to be August this Saturday, with a full slate of college football ready to go, and when I scream “College football is back!”, that’s actually been a factual statement for nearly a week already. With Week 0 in the books (yes, that’s what we call it when they cram cash cow games into late August before the season normally begins), we’ve already had several schools kick off!
It’s a long season, and while I truly enjoy betting on college football every weekend (WAY more than I should), some of you may want a more long term outlook. Fortunately, for you long term investors (as opposed to the betting “day traders” like me), we have the season win total bets. With the transfer portal and the ability to pay players turning college football into perpetual free agency, handicapping season win totals has become somewhat treacherous, but here are five bets I am placing:
TEXAS A&M OVER 8.5 -130
Addition by subtraction selection for me here, as Jimbo Fisher, and his gargantuan contract, are out, and enter former Aggie defensive coordinator Mike Elko, who did an amazing job resurrecting Duke’s football program over the last couple years. Talent is not an issue, as Fisher recruited at a plenty high enough level to win nine games, even in the SEC. I think that Elko will make sure the defense is top notch, and new offensive coordinator Collin Klein should jazz up that side of the ball. A win over Notre Dame in the opener will skyrocket the percentage chances of this bet hitting.
OHIO STATE OVER 10.5 -160
Jere’s another school with 11 or 12 win talent, with a culture that has them in the mix every single year. The defense returns a ton of pieces from the unit that was second in scoring defense in the nation last season. The big difference for the Buckeyes is a massive upgrade at quarterback, where the pedestrian Kyle McCord is out, and Kansas State transfer Will Howard is in. Winning this bet should boil down to taking two out of three from Oregon in Eugene, Penn State in Happy Valley, and Michigan at home. I think Ohio State owns the talent edge over all three, James Franklin can’t beat Ryan Day, and Michigan’s core from it’s national title team last season is gone.
RUTGERS OVER 6.5 +100
Greg Schiano was an abysmal head coach at the NFL level many years ago for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, I love Schiano as a college head coach, especially at an underdog program like Rutgers, who last experienced success nearly two decades ago, when their head coach was —- checks notes — Greg Schiano! That was his first stint at Rutgers. This is a schedule play for me. Last season, the Scarlet Knights went 6-6 with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State on the schedule. None of them are on there this season, and the passing game should be upgraded significantly with Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback.
COLORADO UNDER 5.5 +120
At the risk of Deion Sanders barring me from asking questions of him, if I’m ever in one of his press conferences,I think the 4-8 Buffaloes will likely replicate last year’s performance, minus the 3-0 start in which they take the world by storm. Their out of conference schedule includes an opener against FCS power North Dakota State, and then two games against revenge minded Nebraska and Colorado State, two of the four wins for Coach Prime last season. They move back to the Big XII for their conference affiliation, and none of the potential bottom of the conference teams (BYU, Houston, Arizona State) are on the schedule.
UCLA UNDER 5 wins -115
If it felt weird to see a head coach voluntarily leave his post at a Power Four school to become an offensive coordinator at another school, that’s understandable. However, that’s exactly what Chip Kelly did, leaving the Bruins to head to CColumbus to work for Ryan Day. If you begin to examine things, you can see why. The Bruins face the toughest schedule in their new conference, the Big Ten. There is a three week stretch where they play at LSU, host Oregon, and at Penn State. I mean… wow. There are no cupcake road games, and their head coach is first year guy DeShaun Foster, who’s previous highest pay grade was “running backs coach”. Good luck.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
