The wound licking has already begun for Houston Texan fans who were so excited about the possibility of the team drafting Bryce Young. As we’ve discussed in this space multiple times now, it appears that Young will be going to Carolina with the first overall pick in next week’s draft. The thought, for weeks, had been that the Texans would just tab Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud as the second pick, and call it a day.
Well, NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! It is now looking more and more likely that the Texans will be drafting an edge rusher, or trading out of the second overall pick altogether. Either way, the chances of them taking a quarterback appear to have diminished. Is it anything specific that may have soured the team on Stroud, assuming there was even a lot they loved about him to begin with?
We will likely never know the answer to that question, if Stroud indeed winds up elsewhere. What may sour the Texans, or any NFL fan, on taking the second best quarterback in a draft where the top two picks are quarterbacks is history. The history of the second QB taken with the second overall pick is pretty treacherous since 1993, a period that has seen quarterbacks taken with the first and second overall picks seven times.
Let’s take a look:
1993
1. DREW BLEDSOE, NE
2. RICK MIRER, SEA
This is one of the widest gaps on this list. In 1993, the mystery as to whom the Patriots were going to select swirled right up until the morning of the draft. They settled on Bledsoe, who took them to a Super Bowl in 1996, and ended up with over 44,000 yards passing over 14 seasons. Mirer, on the other hand, played four years in Seattle before entering journeyman mode for the rest of his career. He finished fourth on the MFL Network’s “Bust” list:
1998
1. PEYTON MANNING
2. RYAN LEAF
This is, undoubtedly, the widest gap between a first and second pick in the history of the draft, for any two players, let alone any two quarterbacks selected. Manning is arguably one of the five greatest quarterbacks in the history of the sport. Leaf is the poster child for a bust, on and off the field, and finished number one on the NFL Network’s “Bust” list:
1999
1. TIM COUCH
2. DONOVAN McNABB
1999 was the rare season on this list where the second overall pick was actually significantly better than the first. Tim Couch was the first pick ever for the new expansion iteration of the Cleveland Browns, and went 22-37 over five seasons. McNabb was booed by Philly fans on draft day, but went on to lead them to a Super Bowl in 2004, and went 92-49-1 over an 11 year span with the Eagles.
2012
1. ANDREW LUCK
2. ROBERT GRIFFIN III
Okay, back to the first pick being significantly better than the number two pick. While it was Griffin who won Rookie of the Year in 2012, it was Luck who had the better overall career, finishing with a 53-33 record, and taking the Colts to the 2014 AFC Title Game. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of both guys, and by 2019, both were out of football.
2015
1. JAMEIS WINSTON
2. MARCUS MARIOTA
I’m not sure there is a winner in this particular standoff. Both had their moments during their rookie contracts (i.e. the first four seasons of their careers). Winston was the first QB to throw for 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Mariota led the Titans to a playoff victory in 2017 at Kansas City. However, neither got a second contract with the team that drafted him, and now both are journeyman backups.
2016
1. JARED GOFF
2. CARSON WENTZ
Like the two 2015 quarterbacks, these two had very similar trajectories during the first few years of their careers. Both started off fast enough to get contract extensions, with Goff getting to a Super Bowl in 2018, his third season, and Wentz nearly winning an MVP in 2017, his second season. However, eventually, both were viewed as overpriced busts and traded by the teams that drafted them. Wentz is now two teams removed from the Eagles, and is a free agent getting very little interest. Goff was thrown into the Matthew Stafford trade as a salary dump, but unlike Wentz, Goff has resurrected his career in Detroit. Advantage Goff!
2021
1. TREVOR LAWRENCE
2. ZACH WILSON
This has the potential, down the road, to be very Manning-Leaf-like. Lawrence, like Manning, is thought to be a generational prospect, and got the Jaguars to the postseason in his second year. Wilson is an unmitigated disaster, two years in, and is a couple weeks away from being replaced by Aaron Rodgers.
So, if we tally it up, of the seven instances where quarterbacks have been selected first and second, five have resulted in the first pick outplaying the second pick, and in four of those cases, the gap is WIDE. There was one instance of the second pick clearly being the better player (McNabb), and we’ll call 2015 a standoff in futility. So the record is 5-1-1 in favor of number one overall picks!
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
