The high pressure dome that was holding back the rain and keeping in the heat finally receded this week making way for raining conditions and more on the way. For the early part of the week, we saw some modest heat and sunshine, but the clouds slowly began to filter back in on Tuesday. By Wednesday, much of the city was getting some moderate rainfall. That trend is going to continue at least through the holiday weekend.
Thursday and Friday will be slightly less rainy than Wednesday. There will still be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and a good chance of rain, particularly near the coast, but not the widespread stuff we saw Wednesday. By Saturday, however, that is likely to change.
With plenty of tropical moisture sweeping in off the Gulf, expect both Saturday and Sunday to be soggy, especially in the afternoons. Flooding, other than typical street flash flooding, isn't expected, but it sure could put a damper on any outdoor plans.
Heading into Monday, there is a chance it could get even worse. Forecast models are suggesting we could have a tropical wave in the Gulf that would push even more rain into our region. There is no sense at the moment that this will be a tropical storm or hurricane, but this is the time of year for it and the Gulf is quite warm at the moment. Nothing to be too worried about, but worth watching.
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Mainly, it will be pretty gross much of the weekend, so make your holiday plans accordingly.
Watching the Tropics
The Tropical Atlantic is finally beginning to see some action. There is a strong wave moving off the coast of Africa that appears primed for development into a storm, probably a hurricane and possibly even a major one. It appears to be no threat to us and most models are showing it spin safely out to sea.
Closer to home, one of the forecast models is suggesting development of a tropical wave just east of Florida by Monday or Tuesday that could move into the Gulf. That's still a good five days away and confidence is pretty low at the moment. There is definitely plenty of warm water and relatively low wind shear to support storm formation, but nothing at this point is eminent.