Well, after seven weeks of the NFL season, some crazy ups (two 5-1 ATS weeks in the first month) and some sobering downs (two 2-4 ATS weeks in the last few weeks), here we are back at gambling ground zero, at 21-21, at .500 even. So let's get back in the winning column this week, as October winds down.
Jets +6.5 over JAGUARS
Jets/JAGUARS UNDER 41.5
Yeah baby! Here's how you come out firing with confidence and bravado off of a 2-4 ATS week! By backing Sam Darnold, he of the four interception performance on Monday Night Football four days ago against the Patriots, on the road! Hey, I know it's not for the faint of heart, but the rules say to back teams that lose by 28 points or more the week before, and I do feel like (a) the Jest will bounce back, and (b) Gardner Minshew and the Jags are getting a little too much respect here. I think the Jets will find the right mix of Le'Veon Bell and Sam Darnold to make this close one, and maybe even bounce back with the outright win.
COLTS -5.5 over Broncos
As a Texans fan, I hate to say this — the Colts are for real. Jacoby Brissett, the AFC Offensive Player of the Week last week, thanks in part to the Texans' secondary, is a legit NFL starter. Is he a top ten quarterback? No, but with the Colts' offensive line and talent on defense, he is certainly good enough to win games, and more than enough to cover less than a touchdown spread against Joe Flacco and the woeful Broncos.
Rams -13 over Bengals (in London)
A week before the Texans and Jaguars head to London, the warm-up act will be the horrific, winless Bengals against the Rams, who snapped a three game losing streak last week by dismantling the Falcons in Atlanta. This one is pretty simple — like the Falcons last week, the Bengals are a team going nowhere with a veteran quarterback. In other words, they can't even write off these losses as "growth experiences" for a young nucleus. Andy Dalton is done, and Rams head coach Sean McVay is going to want to teach a lesson to his protege, Bengals first year head coach Zac Taylor. It will be a painful lesson.
Eagles +2 over BILLS
This one is pretty simple — at 3-4, the Eagles have to have this game to keep their season alive, and at 5-1, I think the Bills have generally overachieved. This is a simple regression to the mean, where I feel like the world is more aligned with the Eagles at 4-4 and Bills at 5-2, than it is with the Eagles at 3-5 and Bills at 6-1.
Seahawks -3.5 over FALCONS
MATT SCHAUB ALERT! It is not known, as I type this, whether Matt Ryan (ankle injury) will play Sunday, and to be clear, even if Ryan WERE playing, I'd be taking the Seahawks, for the same reason I took the Rams in Atlanta last weekend. However, there is a chance that MATT SCHAUB might be starting against a Pete Carroll defense. MATT SCHAUB, PEOPLE! FREE MONEY!
LAST WEEK: 2-4
SEASON NFL ATS RECORD: 21-21 (50.0 percent)
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