If you live in Houston and you're a fan of the Texans, then you already know that our long, citywide nightmare is about to end tonight — after two years, the Houston Texans will (barring a trade out of the first round by GM Brian Gaine) have a pick in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Whether it will be an offensive lineman to help protect Deshaun Watson or a cornerback to combat the gauntlet of quarterbacks the team faces in 2019 remains to be seen. Perhaps it will be a wild card pick, neither an offensive lineman nor a cornerback, but some other "best available" player. It should be a lot of fun, but one way you can make it even mroe fun is to gamble on the NFL Draft.
Yes, you can gamble on the NFL Draft! What a country! So, courtesy of betonline.ag, here are six prop bets for tonight's NFL Draft that I absolutely love:
Defensive Players Selected in First 10 Picks - UNDER 6½
Here's my thinking on this one — sure, this is a great draft for defensive players, particularly edge rushers and defensive linemen. However, we only need four offensive players taken in the top ten in order to get an under. I think we will see at least two quarterbacks go in the top ten (likely Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins, but Drew Lock could go, too), at least one offensive lineman (Jawaan Taylor? Andre Dillard?), and one other player (tight end T.J. Hockenson seems like a good possibility). I think we can get this one.
Player Selected 1st Overall — QUINNEN WILLIAMS 7/1
Here are the full odds on this prop bet:
Kyler Murray 2/7
Nick Bosa 4/1
Quinnen Williams 7/1
Josh Allen 33/1
Look, I get that Murray is the favorite, but there are at least two pundits with credibility that think the Cardinals are keeping Josh Rosen and drafting a non-QB:
Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic took Quinnen Williams with the Cardinals' top pick in a mock draft put together by Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times, writing that "the Cardinals like Josh Rosen, and I don't see them taking a quarterback in the first round two years in a row."
And Pete Prisco of CBS Sports (h/t Jess Root of Cards Wire) reported that the Cardinals were out on Murray.
"Initially, the ownership pushed for Kyler Murray," he said. "They were having a hard time selling tickets. They put it out there, Arizona was lukewarm to it, so now all of a sudden they're pulling back and, from what I have been told, they're going to go in a different direction. They're not going to draft Kyler Murray."
As the best player in this draft, Williams is great value at 7/1. Again, if I were trying to just be correct, with no wager, I'd take Murray, but at 7/1, I'll take my chances at capitalizing on the value.
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What draft pick will Dwayne Haskins be selected with — UNDER 9½
The Redskins reportedly are trying to move up into the top five to ensure they can get Haskins ahead of the New York Giants. There will be more than one quarterback taken inside the top ten, and Haskins is the most likely one.
What draft pick will Ed Oliver be selected with — UNDER 5½
I'm a believer in the rumors that Oliver will end up with the New York Jets, even if Jets GM (and former Texans front office guy) Mike Maccagnan is reportedly trying to move down in the draft.
SEC Players Selected in Round 1 — OVER 11½
Let's see, here are the absolute first round locks from the SEC — Quinnen Williams (Alabama), Jonah Williams (Alabama), Josh Allen (Kentucky), Montez Sweat (Mississippi State), Devin White (LSU), Drew Lock (Missouri), Jawaan Taylor (Florida), and D.K. Metcalf (Ole Miss). That's eight, so we need four more out of the following — Erik McCoy (Texas A&M), DeAndre Baker (Georgia), Greedy Williams (LSU), Josh Jacobs (Alabama), Jeffrey Simmons (Mississippi State), A.J. Brown (Ole Miss), Deebo Samuel (South Carolina), and Irv Smith, Jr. (Alabama). I think we can get to a full dozen.