Weather Week: Lots of Rain With Some Tropical Concerns

The disturbances are lined up out in the Atlantic.
The disturbances are lined up out in the Atlantic. Courtesy the National Hurricane Center
As we suspected, the weekend turned out to be a bit of a soggy one. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere turned into daily storms that became pretty widespread both Saturday and Sunday. Alas, the same is forecast to be true for much of the week.

Before we dig into the tropics, and there is plenty to look at there, let's talk about Houston's immediate weather future. Both Monday and Tuesday are going to be umbrella weather. The National Weather Service is calling for between 1 and 5 inches of rain across all of southeast Texas. Most of the area should expect a couple inches while some spots could get more.

The entire area should get at least a downpour or two the first couple days of the week. The good news is temperatures should remain on the coolish side with highs only reaching the low to mid 80s.

By Wednesday, showers should become a little more scattered and remain that way into Thursday. Temperatures might inch up slightly with some more sun possible, but 80s are still in the forecast. It's Friday and beyond when things get a little tricky,

We won't get into the specific weekend forecast until later in the week, but let's talk about the tropics because it will heavily influence the weather over the next six or seven days around here.

Watching the Tropics

As of writing this, there were seven systems in the Atlantic and Pacific including two hurricanes and two typhoons. It's possible that by the time you read this, Isaac will also be a hurricane. September 10 is the statistical peak of hurricane season (and September 9 was the anniversary of the 1900 Galveston hurricane), and it is clearly living up to the hype. Let's break it down.

On the whole, the biggest threat is Hurricane Florence. It is becoming clearer by the hour that she has a date with the east coast of the United States, probably in the Carolinas. Florence is expected to be a major hurricane approaching landfall by the end of the week. To make matters worse, steering currents are forecast to weaken into the weekend, leaving a Harvey-like track in the mid-Atlantic. Some forecasts have suggested 20-plus inches of rain for inland areas.

Closer to home, the most immediate threat is a tropical wave just west of Belize and tracking northwest. It is expected to move across the Yucatan and the Gulf towards the Texas coastline by end of the week. With some potentially higher wind shear, it is not expected to strengthen, but it could bring quite a bit more rain to all of the Texas coastline.

Beyond that wave is Tropical Storm Isaac. It doesn't appear to be a threat to us, but it should track westward into the Caribbean and has a better shot at impacting our weather at some point, however unlikely that may be.

Finally, there is Hurricane Helene, which is forecast to move peacefully out to sea impacting no land masses.

The good news is it appears most of the tropical weather should start to ease up in about ten days in the Atlantic. But, until then, it is going to be a crazy week-plus.
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Jeff Balke is a writer, editor, photographer, tech expert and native Houstonian. He has written for a wide range of publications and co-authored the official 50th anniversary book for the Houston Rockets.
Contact: Jeff Balke