It’s very early in the NBA season and “on-pace” guy is already out in full force. We try to not do too much wild analysis based on only a handful of games, but then again, why not? A trend is a trend even if it is just seven games into the season. And the Rockets are not immune from such analysis.
As such, there are a few things to review in this very early season that are worth noting. At 4-3, the Rockets are, by record alone, a mediocre team, but they have also demonstrated that they can beat good teams as evidenced by their win over the Knicks on Monday. Let’s look at a few early stats that might give us some hints at what is to come. First, the good news.
Net Rating: 4.7
NBA Rank: 7
Despite some very inconsistent offensive play (more on that shortly), the Rockets’ net rating is good for seventh in the NBA (9th in Offensive Rating, 10th in Defense). This is the kind of balance Coach Ime Udoka began preaching last season and it is clearly carrying over. This is a team capable of a top five defensive ranking and they do things well enough on the offensive end (shooting isn’t one of them) right now to make them successful most nights. Their low turnovers and high offensive rebounding rates offset some of their shooting struggles. More importantly, they get after it defensively every night.
In fact, that defense has saved (and almost saved) them in several early season games, driving furious comebacks and shutting down opponents when it mattered. It has made up for a lot of mistakes and missed shots and bodes well for the season.
Turnover Percentage: 12.0
NBA Rank: 3
Prior to Udoka’s arrival when the Rockets were in full-on development mode, this team was a turnover machine. In the three seasons prior to last year, the Rockets ranked 23rd, 30th and 30th in this same stat. Last season, they jumped all the way to seventh and this year, third. It is a big part of why their offensive rating is so high and a tribute to both the stability of the team and Fred VanVleet’s steady hand on the floor.
Quite simply, this is a team that protects the ball as well as anyone in the league, which means more efficient possessions and, combined with their defense, a chance to win against anyone on any given night.
OK, and now for the bad news.
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 48.6
NBA Rank: 29
And then we had to go and bring up offense. The Rockets do not have a great shooter on this team. If Reed Sheppard ever begins to look like his college self, he could become that guy, but he’s a rookie and it hasn’t happened yet. Their best shooter at the moment is Tari Eason. He has been great early on, but the Rockets cannot rely on him to be their best marksman, especially when he takes so few shots (particularly from three). Jalen Green has begun the season hot from the three point line at over 37 percent, but he’s shooting only 39 percent total from the floor. Yikes.
Then you have the guys who you want to rely on for shooting like VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, both of whom are well off their shooting pace from last season (though Brooks not to the same degree as VanVleet). And Jabari Smith, Jr. continues to struggle from distance despite being a very good shooter in college.
If the Rockets had an Achilles heel, shooting would be it. That is why they go through such droughts and are forced into comebacks so often. It’s also why they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA — lots of offensive rebounds thanks to lots of missed shots.
We would say this isn’t a worrying situation given how early it is in the season, but this is not a team full of proven shooters just going through a slump. They will have to find a way to improve their offense if they want to improve on their record from last season.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
