One market that Houston Texans fans have not had to follow very closely, at least from the stand point of a participant, is the NFL head coaching vacancy market. The Texans hired DeMeco Ryans in January of 2023 with the idea that he would be the team’s head coach for a long, long time, and despite heavy angst over a recent 2-4 six game run, this still appears to be the case. DeMeco Ryans will be the head coach here for a long time.
Now, one perspective that the Texans had on the head coaching vacancy market last season was from a “supplier” standpoint. In other words, the Texans had a coaching staff member, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, that was sought after by some teams as a candidate to fill a vacancy. Whether Slowik is still on the radar for some teams is in heavy doubt. There’s a better chance the Texans fire Slowik than Slowik’s getting a head coaching offer.
Still, the coaching carousel has a ripple effect on every NFL team. Even if your team isn’t a participant nor a supplier, the decisions your foes make impact the strength or weakness of your upcoming schedule. So let’s see what this offseason might look like, in terms of head casing openings:
CURRENTLY OPEN: Jets, Saints
The Jets fired Robert Saleh after five weeks, and a 2-3 start. Since then, they’ve won one game, and it was against the Houston Texans. The saints fired Dennis Allen after seven straight losses off of a 2-0 start. They’ve actually won two in a row since then. I wouldn’t expect either interim head coach, Jeff Ulbrich in New York or Darren Rizzi in New Orleans, to get promoted to full time head coach.
LIKELY TO OPEN: Bears, Jaguars, Giants, Browns, Cowboys
In Chicago, Matt Eberflus has made turning close games into losses a science, all while watching rookie QB Caleb Williams struggle mightily. Eberflus is the favorite to be the next head coach fired, just ahead of Pederson, who’s been a disaster since an 8-3 start to 2023. He’s coached the Jags to a 3-14 mark since then. Brian Daboll was Coach of the Year in 2022 for the Giants, but that feels like a decade ago. Deshaun Watson completely failed Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. Finally, the Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season, although Jerry Jones just said on Tuesday he might extend McCarthy, not fire him. The moral of that story — Jerry Jones is a lunatic.
POSSIBLE TO OPEN: Bengals, Buccaneers
The Bengals are notoriously cheap, which means they don’t like to fire coaches and then have to pay them the remainder of their salary, so Zac Taylor is probably safe, despite a disappointing 4-7 start to the Bengals’ season. The Buccaneers are hanging on the fringe of the playoffs, because they’re in an awful division, but they have to ask themselves “Is Todd Bowles really the answer at head coach?”
WILD CARDS: Raiders, Panthers
These are both teams who have first year, full time head coaches. Antonio Pearce was the interim head coach after Josh McDaniels was fired last season, and after going 5-4 down the stretch, got promoted. However, the Raiders may be drafting a young QB, and if it’s Shedeur Sanders, I could see owner Mark Davis making Deion and Shedeur a package head coach/QB deal. Dave Canales in Carolina belongs on the “firing radar” solely because his owner, David Tepper, feels like he would fire a head coach a year until he found the right guy.
SUMMARY
In total, I expect seven head coaching openings, come January. That number is made up of the two existing openings, plus the five likely ones. There could be a firing that comes out of nowhere, or a retirement, but for now, I’ll go with seven open slots. For the record, I don’t think Slowik lands any of them.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
