For the first time in Houston Texans history, this year the team begins the playoffs on the road. The first eight times the Texans made the postseason, each time was as champions of the AFC South, guaranteeing a home game, which every time took place at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.
We are in foreign territory now, as the Texans not only have been moved off of Saturday afternoon, but instead are playing on perhaps the biggest stage of the playoffs — on Monday Night Football in Pittsburgh to take on an extreme blue blood franchise in the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This is a game involving streaks. On the one hand, the Steelers have not lost a Monday night home game literally since 1991. On the other hand, the Steelers have not won a playoff game since 2016. Meanwhile, in the background, the Texans are still seeking their first road playoff win in franchise history.
The whole thing is a fascinating dynamic, especially considering the Texans are three point favorites on the road, in Acrisure Stadium. So let’s dig in, as the Texans try to become one of the final eight teams standing for the third straight season:
4. Kill Aaron
The Steelers will do their best to have Aaron Rodgers unload the ball quickly on passing downs. That’s because if he holds it for longer than three seconds, he might be getting scooped off the field by a giant spatula, This is the way, though, if you’re the Texans. Make 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, going against Daniel Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks), pay for being 42 years old. Success for the Texans will be Mason Rudolph taking snaps for the Steelers in the third quarter.
3. Kicking game in adverse conditions
Both of these teams sport elite level place kickers. Chris Boswell of the Steelers, proud Rice graduate, is one of the best kickers of the last decade. Ka’imi Fairbairn of the Texans tied a league record for field goals in a season with 44. In a tightly contested, defensive struggle, field goals are going to matter even more. This is one wrinkle that likely favors the Steelers. Fairbairn is accustomed to kicking indoors, with no weather elements. If this game comes down to a kick, this injects a big dose of variability.
2. Slippery Steelers running backs
The Houston Texans have been a much better tackling defense in 2025 than they were last season. It’s a big reason why they’ve given up the fewest yards per game this season. The Steelers, though, deploy two running backs that are excellent in getting yards after contact, in maxing out the number of yards they gain on every play. Jaylen Warren plays much bigger than his 5-foot-8 listing, and Kenneth Gainwell leads the Steelers in catches and is excellent after the catch. If the Steelers win this game, chances are Watten and Gainwell are accounting for about 150 yards of offense.
1. Texans offensive line against Steelers bulk
The scariest aspect of the Steelers, especially looking at them through a Texans lens, is their defensive front. While the Texans’ offensive line has improved in 2025, compared to 2024 certainly, they have struggled with bigger, bulkier defensive fronts. The Steelers can run future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Cam Hayward at you. They can run future Hall of Famer T.J. Watt at you. Ali Highsmith is no joke. If this game is going to truly get wrecked for the Texans, it will come with heavy pressure on C.J. Stroud and an inability to run the football.
SPREAD: Texans -3
PREDICTION: Texans 19, Steelers 10
SEASON RECORD: 11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS
This article appears in Private: Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026.