We continue to grind away, with a 3-3 week last week in our ATS picks, and we are still fortunately sitting above the line of profit (around 53 percent) at around a 57 percent win rate. I'd like to put a little daylight between my win rate and the profit line, so let's try to get our first 6-0 weekend of the NFL season here in Week 6, shall we?
Now, before we get to the bets bets, this week exotic futures bet that has been added to the board is the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, or as some like to call it "EWWWW-A for TU'A". Here's how the big board looks:
Which Team will Earn the 1st Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft?
Miami Dolphins 1/3
Washington Redskins 5/1
New York Jets 6/1
Cincinnati Bengals 15/2
Denver Broncos 10/1
Atlanta Falcons 12/1
Arizona Cardinals 14/1
I would cross off the Jets and the Cardinals from this list, as they are teams with young QBs that are actually trying to win games. The Broncos and Falcons are bad football teams, but with just enough veteran guile to go 4-12 or 5-11, which will be bad enough for top five, but not bad enough for top one. The Jets should win a few games once Sam Darnold is back, so that leaves the hapless Bengals, wretched Redskins, and the blight-on-football-bad Dolphins.
To me, the value play here is the Redskins at 5/1, which is the perfect lead into my picks, because the Redskins and Dolphins play each other this weekend in whatever the absolute polar opposite of the Super Bowl is. So let's start there:
DOLPHINS +3.5 over Redskins
Redskins/DOLPHINS OVER 41
Yeah, the Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, but the Redskins are a nearly-as-piss-poor 1-5 ATS. In other words, these are just two really, really bad football teams, and whatever edge the Redskins may have in overall talent is probably cancelled out by the fact that they begin a stretch with an interim head coach (Bill Callahan, WHOOPEE!) at the helm. These are just two really awful, really wayward, super downtrodden franchises, so I don't see these teams as drastically different, so I certainly don't trust the Redskins one bit as a road favorite. Are you kidding me? Take the Dolphins in a game where these two horrible defenses are giving up mistake-laden plays all day (hence, the OVER tack-on).
Eagles +3 over VIKINGS
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings got back on track last weekend with a 28-10 thrashing of the woeful Giants, one of our best bets for last weekend. Now, Cousins is back in the unfortunate spot (for him) of having expectations and needing a win to maintain the pace in what is a surprisingly stellar division thus far. In other words, people will be paying attention, so Cousins will suck. Book it. In his career, Cousins is 5-27 against teams with winning records. Someday, the league will realize what a fraud Cousins is, and then he will no longer be a starting QB, and thus, this money machine of fading him will go away. We must strike while the iron is still hot!
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Saints +1 over JAGUARS
The battle of two buzz worthy backups-now-starters due to injury, Teddy Bridgewater with the Saints and rookie Gardner Minshew of the Jags. The Saints are 3-0 with Bridgewater as the starter, and there's nothing really fluky about it. They handed the Seahawks their only loss of the season (in Seattle!), they beat the Cowboys when the Cowboys were 3-0, and they knocked off the Bucs the week after the Bucs hung 55 on the Rams. And I'm GETTING points against Gardner Minshew (who's been solid but still)? OK then.
RAMS -4 over Niners
BROWNS +2 over Seahawks
I am doing what you're supposed to do after there's been a big prime time blowout (28 post margin or more) the week before — back the loser and fade the winner. So with a stiff drink in my hand, and a tear of fear in my eye, I back the Cleveland Browns as a home dog against the Seahawks. And with a less stiff drink in my other hand, I confidently back the Rams, needing a win to stay in the divisional hunt in the NFC West, against the Niners. Let's do this!
LAST WEEK: 3-3
SEASON NFL ATS RECORD: 17-13 (56.7 percent)