FanGraphs is a baseball website that, among other things, keeps track of fluid percentages throughout the season for things like odds of making the playoffs, odds of winning a division, and odds of winning a World Series. It’s a staple for any baseball nerd that like to follow the daily grind of their team in the chase for glory,
On Friday morning last week, according to FanGraphs, the Houston Astros had roughly a 6 or 7 percent chance of winning the American League West, a feat they’ve accomplished every full season (sorry, 2020) since 2017. The odds of the Astros making the playoffs were a robust 84 percent, but winning the division as highly unlikely.
Well, if you’re clicking on this post, it means you probably love baseball and probably love the Astros, so you know by now that they did end up winning the American League West, thanks to a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks and a massive choke job by the Texas Rangers over the weekend. As a result, the Astros will have a bye from playing in the wild card round, and can sit home and watch the three through six seeds beat up on each other for the next three days.
As the two seed in the American League, the Astros will play the winner of the “3 versus 6” wild card series, the Minnesota Twins versus the Toronto Blue Jays, beginning on Saturday of this coming weekend. It just so happens that both of those teams are led by a former core member of these recent championship Astros — shortstop Carlos Correa for the 3-seed Twins and outfielder George Springer for the 6-seed Blue Jays.
Both players were incredibly popular here in their time as Astros, and if we’re being honest are probably still pretty popular with the Houston fan base. Correa still makes his home here in the offseason. So when it comes to choosing an opponent based on the desire to face off with Correa or Springer, who do Astro fans want?
Well, I put that question to my audience on X, the app formerly known as Twitter:
It’s Correa in a landslide! Why is that? Well, if I had to guess, it comes down to three reasons:
1. Minnesota is, quite simply, the weaker of the two teams.
Toronto had a slightly better record during the regular season, 89-63 versus 87-75 for the Twins, but the Twins had the benefit of playing the AL Central for a disproportionate amount of the year, so the gap is, in reality, probably bigger between these two teams. Also, the Blue Jays have more bats that scare an opponent, with Springer, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, and others. So some of the voters in this poll would likely rather face a weaker foe.
2. Toronto is more of a marquee team, which means games in the evening, not afternoons.
As the playoff schedule stacks up, there are certainly those of us who have work schedules that are perfectly conducive to watching afternoon playoff baseball games. The fact of the matter is that we are in the minority. Most people can only tune in full force if the games are in late afternoon or in the evenings. Prime time viewing demands marquee players and big markets, and Toronto has more star power to throw into a combo platter with the Astros, and thus, more likely evening ALDS games.
3. Correa is just more fun to root against.
Then there’s the obvious answer — while we love both Correa and Springer, the reality is that Correa has some diva tendencies that make him just a little less likable than Springer, even with our long history going back to Correa being selected with the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. I mean, who says this, other than someone with some heel tendencies?
Whomever they play, the Astros quest for their seventh straight American League Championship Series begins on Saturday.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
