On paper and in the computer simulations of the remainder of the 2024 NFL season, things are just fine for the Houston Texans. Sure, they’re not contending for the No. 1 seed in the AFC or anything, but they are comfortably in the lead in the AFC South, and should be playing a home playoff game come January. However, if last Sunday’s loss to the Titans proved anything, it’s that the games aren’t played in a simulation. The Texans are capable of losing to anybody, anywhere.
That brings us to this Sunday in Jacksonville, and the 2-9 Jaguars, who on paper are a disaster right now. They went into their bye week this past week with a 52-6 loss to the Lions. The Jags gave a $275 million contract to Trevor Lawrence this past offseason, and he is 2-12 over his last 14 starts. Their head coach, Doug Pederson, is at or near the top of every “next head coach fired” list.
And yet, the Texans, the way they’ve played of late, could easily lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They enter the game a five point road favorite, so the market is confident the good version of the Texans will show up, but again, we have to see it with our own eyes. Speaking of which, here are four things to watch in this Week 13 matchup on Sunday:
4. Road sweet road
Considering the peaks and valleys experienced by the Texans over the last several seasons, the team has a couple of the more intriguing streaks going on right now. Inside the division, the Texans have won nine straight road games. If you’re doing the math this includes games in seasons coached by David Culley and Lovie Smith. Remarkable! Specific to the Jaguars, the Texans have not lost a game in Jacksonville since 2017. That’s six straight wins in Jacksonville (one in London, actually, in 2019), with five different head coaches! Last season, DeMeco Ryans got his first win as a head coach in Jacksonville in Week 3.
3. Heat up whoever is playing QB
The best thing the Texans have going for them right now is their pass rush. Danielle Hunter has been everything the Texans could have asked for, and more. With 10.5 sacks, Hunter is making a late season run at Defensive Player of the Year. Meanwhile, Will Anderson returned from an ankle injury with two sacks on Sunday, and he sits at 9.5 sacks on the season. It’s not clear which QB will start for the Jags, Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones. Lawrence missed the last two games with injury. He wasn’t all that great before going out, but his backup Mac Jones was awful in the two games Lawrence was out, averaging 124 yards per start and throwing 3 picks against zero touchdowns. Whether it’s Jones or Lawrence, the Texans need to heat up the Jags’ starting QB. Another eight sacks, the total versus Will Levis last Sunday, would be nice.
2. Brian Thomas, Jr.
The Jaguars wide receiver room has been hit with the injury bug. Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are both done for the year with various ailments. This leaves rookie first round pick Brian Thomas as the clear weapon the Texans need to shut down. In the first matchup with the Jags this season, a 24-20 Texans win, Thomas led the Jags with 6 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. He was open several other times where Lawrence just missed him. Thomas is a problem. I can see Derek Stingley following him around the field as the defensive strategy, and given the LSU ties between the two, that could be a fun, chippy matchup to watch.
1. How about a second half touchdown?
The Texans offensive woes in the second half are well documented. This season, the offense has scored a total of seven touchdowns in the second half of their 12 games. In the last six games, the Texans’ defense has scored more touchdowns (two) than the Texans’ offense (one). It’s a joke, it’s disgusting, and it needs to stop. If there is a defense against whom C.J. Stroud and company can get well, it’s Jacksonville’s. The Jags allow 28.7 points per game (30th in the NFL), and allow a 111.5 passer rating (32nd, dead last). Stroud has put up four straight subpar games, with below a passer rating of 80.0 in each. If we come out of this game with the same questions about the Texans’ offense, someone needs to get fired.
SPREAD: Texans -5
PREDICTION: Texans 23, Jaguars 20
SEASON RECORD: 7-5 SU, 2-10 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
