Seventeen weeks in, 16 games in, and the paint on the NFL’s playoff picture has started to dry. In the AFC, six of the seven participants, including the Houston Texans, are solidified. The only remaining variable, participant wise, is which of the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Baltimore Ravens will win the AFC North. The two teams play each other in Week 18, and the winner will be the 4-seed in the AFC.
As far as the Texans go, their only remaining game is the season finale, at home against the Indianapolis Colts, who will likely be starting rookie Riley Leonard at quarterback. The scenarios are fascinating, because there’s an argument that the Texans should ignore seeding, and prioritize getting everyone healthy, especially considering they’re a team that’s proven they can win on ther road in raucous environments.
For now, let’s look at the possibilities for the Texans, including percentages on the chances of landing in each seeding spot. We should point out, the Texans are eliminated from being the 1-seed or 2-seed (due to their record not being good enough), as well as the 4-seed (reserved now for the AFC North champion). As for the other four slots in the AFC playoff picture, here we go:
3-seed (5 percent chance)
This is the only slot that would allow for a Texans home game in the first round, as the Texans would be AFC South champs. For the Texans to land here, they need the Jaguars to lose at home to the Titans, and obviously the Texans would need to beat the Colts. The Jags open as a 10.5 point favorite. Worth noting, this exact same scenario occurred in 2023, and the Jags lost to the Titans at home, gifting the AFC South crown to the Texans.
5-seed (73 percent chance)
If the Texans win their game against the Colts, this is the lowest spot they can land, thanks to head to head wins over the Chargers and Bills, the other AFC two wild card teams currently. In this case, they would play the winner of the Ravens and Steelers game in Week 18, which is being played in PIttsburgh, but with the Ravens as a three point favorite. The two teams played in early December, with the Steelers winning, 27-22.
6-seed (15 percent chance)
If the Texans are the sixth seed, it means they lost to the Colts, and one of either the Bills (home vs the Jets) or the Chargers (at the Broncos) lost in Week 18. The Jets have given up on the season, so more likely it would be the Chargers losing to the Broncos, who are playing for the 1-seed in the AFC. The most likely opponent in the first round would be the Jaguars in Jacksonville, where the Texans lost 17-10 back in Week 3.
7-seed (7 percent chance)
This is where the Texans would fall to if they were to lose to the Colts, and both the Bills and Chargers win. The Texans would then face the 2-seed in the opening round, and would also be guaranteed no home games in the postseason. The most likely 2-seed right now is New England (home vs Miami in Week 18).
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.