We are now three seasons into the C.J. Stroud Experience as a Houston Texans fan, and if someone had told me after his scintillating rookie season that the emotions of the fan base would be so conflicted on the team’s franchise quarterback, I’d have those people committed.
Fall 2023 began a magical season for Stroud and the Texans, with the team winning as many games (11, including a postseason win) in that season as they’d won in the previous three seasons combined. Stroud was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in a landslide vote. The future was bright!
The future, meaning 2024 and 2025, ended up being okay. The Texans won the AFC South the next season and tied a franchise record for regular season wins in the next. However, Stroud’s play did not mirror the progress of the team’s. Stroud went backwards, by many metrics, with perception around the league (not an actual metric, but you get my drift) maybe being his biggest backslide.
Now, as the Texans embark on free agency and the 2026 draft class, and more importantly for this article, as Stroud is eligible for a contract extensions this offseason, we are getting more and more wild conjecture about what the future may hold for Stroud and the Texans. The main conversation igniter that we’re hearing is that “teams may take a big swing, call the Texans, and see if they’re willing to trade C.J. Stroud. Prominent national football guys Albert Breer and Todd McShay have said as much.
However, just because teams might call the Texans to see what their trade appetite is does not mean that the Texans are shopping C.J. Stroud. Hanging the phone up on someone is pretty easy if they’re asking for something silly. Right now, I think even discussing trading Stroud is silly. Many of you disagree, of that I am aware. However, here is my three-pronged reasoning behind what I think is a fairly easy take (and an opinion I feel strongly the Texans share):
3. There are no solutions in the draft that come close to measuring up
So let’s pretend for a minute that the Texans get an offer for Stroud that they consider worth pulling the trigger on. To me, that would have to entail multiple first round picks over the next couple seasons. Unless you’re trading with the Raiders, who have the first overall pick, there is no acceptable 2026 solution in this draft class. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza should be the top pick, and after that, the quaretrbacks are all “Day 2 and on” type prospects. So, yay, you get some draft capital to fortify other areas, but if you go into the season with the plan being “start Davis Mills for 17 games,” then what are you doing, really? (I say this knowing full well some of you like Davis Mills more than Stroud, which is nuts to me.)
2. The free agent and trade markets for veteran quarterbacks are the most underwhelming in years
So, you make a trade for a few high draft picks, knowing that you’re not drafting the next Texans franchise quarterback. However, you need someone, someone better than Davis Mills. Well, unlike the past few seasons where there have been some big names on the move (someone have worked, some have not), this year, you’re helping pick up the trash off some other team’s stoop. Kyler Murray? Tua Tagovailoa? Kirk Cousins? Malik Willis? These guys give you a better chance than Stroud PLUS some reinforcements on offense around him? The answer is “No, no they do not.” I know some of you will propose Joe Burrow trades to me. Save your time and energy, and don’t. I love Burrow, but the Bengals aren’t doing a Stroud for Burrow trade.
- People are putting too much weight on this postseason
It is inarguable that Stroud had the worst performance in a playoff game for a Texans quarterback ever. Some may argue Brian Hoyer’s five turnover game in a 30-0 shutout loss to the Chiefs in 2015, but this 2025 version of the Texans had so much more Super Bowl hope and buzz than that Bill O’Brien-coached team. Add to Stroud’s egg he laid against the Patriots that he looked shaky in the wild card round win over the Steelers, and that seven day period torpedoed the hopes about Stroud’s future for a large portion of the fan base. I get it.
However, we can’t act like we didn’t see Stroud progress in Nick Caley’s offense in the second half of the season, behind largely mediocre line play and a poor run game. We know that somewhere in there is the 2023 version of Stroud, that was such a big play machine. Yes, the playoff games were the most important games of the season, but I can’t let that cancel the progress from 2025, and the hope that 2023 can be recaptured with a focused offseason and some help in free agency and the draft.