When the Houston Texans’ schedule was released back in May, we looked at all the game on the slate, and looked at where and when they would all be played. When the Los Angeles Chargers landed in Week 9, hosting the Texans at SoFi Stadium, I think most fans and media looked at that matchup as one of the most even matchups on the board, a game that could go either way.
Nine weeks into the season, anyone who thought that is, in actuality, correct, but I doubt that anyone who viewed this game as an even matchups back in September figured it would be even because both teams stink. After all, these are two teams who reached the postseason the last two seasons. Instead, both teams are a combined 2-12. In short, these are two bad, underachieving squads.
Make no mistake, this is a bigger game for the Texans than it is for the Chargers. The Chargers’ season is essentially over. They’re more worried about making sure their quarterback, who makes $55 million per year, isn’t broken, than they are worried about out the postseason. The Texans still harbor faint playoff hopes, and losing to a winless, rudderless mess like the Chargers would take the low point of the DeMeco Ryans Era, which is where we are right now, and plunge it into the center of the earth.
This is a must-win for the Texans, flat out. Here are four things to watch for this weekend in this game:
4. What exactly got fixed during the bye week?
As Coach Ryans pointed out in multiple media appearances over the last two weeks, there were no shortage of areas to reassess and focus on improvement. The Texans have been among the worst tackling teams in football, and probably not coincidentally, they did what Will Anderson described as “pee wee ball” tackling drills on Wednesday. The Texans have been among the most penalized teams in football. I’m not sure how a bye week fixes that, but it needs fixing. Communication on defense has been a major culprit in the Texans’ allowing the highest number of explosive plays in the NFL. This also must get fixed. Finally, play selection and play calling have been inconsistent and flat out bizarre at times. Ryans indicated they had meetings to address that, as well. The proof will be in the play on Sunday.
3. Tank Dell and Marvin Harrison, Jr.
During the bye week, the Texans placed wide receiver Jaylin Noel on injured reserve with a toe injury. He is done for the year. Fortunately, Tank Dell returned just before the bye week, and with some noticeable overlap in skill set with Noel, Dell is likely ready to assume some of Noel’s workload. Additionally, Harrison, the Texans’ big trade acquisition in October, has played just a few snaps in each of his first two games as a Texan. That needs to change, especially if the Texans are looking to recoup the value of the second round pick they sent to Arizona in exchange for Harrison. Finally, Nico Collins needs to flat out be on the field more than he was against the Giants, where he played barely 60 percent of the snaps. This wide receiver room has talent, and it’s up to OC Nick Caley to deploy it, and stop running these “jumbo” packages with six offensive linemen.
2. Justin Herbert’s slow meltdown into football hell
If you listen to my radio show, you know that I’ve long felt that Herbert has been one of the most overrated entities in the NFL. Despite never winning anything of substance, including a single playoff game, so called “experts” have insisted on placing Herbert among the top half dozen or so quarterbacks in the NFL. With Mike McDaniel hired as the OC in Los Angeles, this was supposed to be the season where Herbert’s game actually elevated to the level people have insisted he’s played at since arriving in 2020. Instead, Herbert has been arguably the worst quarterback in the league, throwing ten picks in seven games, and being the steward of an offense that hasn’t scored a touchdown in 27 straight possessions. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t enjoying Herbert’s meltdown validating my opinion of him as a player. I’d also be lying if I said I wasn’t terrified that his breakout game is going to happen this weekend against the beleaguered Texans defense.
1. C.J. Stroud’s run to (contractual) glory, continued
Thankfully, the Texans clearly have the better quarterback in this matchup, and likely in every matchup in the schedule the remainder of the season. Despite the team’s 2-5 record, Stroud has been outstanding this season, as he is among the league leaders in passing yards, and has thrown 11 touchdowns to just one interception. The Chargers are 0-7, but their defense has been their strong suit this season. If the Texans are going to make a run at a playoff spot in the second half of the season, unless the defense recaptures its magic of 2025, they will likely need Stroud to keep playing at an elite level, and if he plays at that level for another ten games, he is going to get paid a LOT of money this offseason.
SPREAD: Texans -5
PREDICTION: Texans 27, Chargers 16
SEAN’s SEASON RECORD: 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS
