In a packed race with at least 20 declared candidates, poll watchers have their eyes on “the big three” — a trio of Black Democrat attorneys who have held elected office.
The U.S. Congressional District 18 seat appeared early on to belong to Christian Menefee, the young Harris County attorney who filed hours after Sylvester Turner’s funeral. Turner, a former Houston mayor, held the District 18 seat for less than three months before his death in March. Prior to Turner, the late Sheila Jackson Lee represented Congressional District 18 for about three decades.
Political experts declared Menefee the frontrunner with anticipation that he’d probably face former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards in a runoff. That was before an election date was even called, and there’s still ample time to enter the race. The filing deadline is September 3, and the election will be held November 4.
But when Texas Rep. Jolanda Jones submitted her paperwork last week, the game changed, says Rice University political science professor Mark Jones.
“Now that Jolanda Jones is in, we’re now effectively in a two-step race, that is, no one is going to win 50 percent plus one in the first round,” the professor said. “In the first round, the goal is not to win, it’s to get into the runoff. The candidates need to design their strategy with the goal of getting into the runoff, and that’s where Jolanda Jones is really well-positioned.”
Each of the three prominent hopefuls in the race brings different advantages, the professor said.
“One area where they differ is that Jolanda Jones is a more polarizing figure than either Edwards or Menefee, but she also has a subset of voters who are very enthusiastic about her,” Mark Jones said.
The professor elaborated that Jones, dating back to her days on the Houston ISD school board and city council, has had a combative style “which can generate support among allies but can also draw opposition among people who are on the other side of an issue than her, which over time, has not been a trivial number of people.”
What Does Each Candidate Bring to the Table?
The top-tier hopefuls have some similarities but have distinct leadership styles that give voters a choice, said Nancy Sims, a political science lecturer at the University of Houston.
“They’re all very engaged community leaders,” Sims said. “I would say Menefee is the most traditional of that group, while being young. Edwards is professional, has run a couple of times, has a pretty strong base of support, but tends to be a little more moderate. She certainly has a stronger appeal to the white voter.”
Menefee recently has proven his willingness to fight — and sue — the Trump administration over federal cuts to public health funding and workforce programs, but Jones is highlighting a skill set she says she honed in the Texas House of Representatives, that of collaboration.
Jolanda Jones’ reputation is that of one who will mobilize constituents and lead the fight to challenge others, particularly Republicans, Sims said. At the same time, the lawmaker said she’s had to cross the aisle this year to get her bills passed.
In the legislative session that ended earlier this month, Jones convinced Republican Senators Joan Huffman and Mayes Middleton to carry criminal justice reform and education bills for her in the Senate. The legislation passed both chambers and awaits the governor’s signature.
“People were shocked,” she said. “If I learned anything from my first session, it’s that if you as a Democrat don’t speak to Republicans, you’re not going to get anything passed.”
There are 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats in the Texas House.
“If I presume that all Democrats vote for all Democrat bills, which is not necessarily true, I, at a minimum, have to go find 14 Republicans to vote with the Democrats for any of my bills because we need 76 votes to get any bill out of the House,” Jones said. “It’s even more difficult in the Senate.
“That is a yeoman’s task,” she added. “That takes a skill set that a lot of people don’t have. Yelling and screaming and refusing to speak to the other side is a recipe for not getting any of your stuff passed. And I didn’t have to sell out any principles. I was still raising hell when I needed to.”
“Raising hell” was an attribute Jones was known for during her time in Houston politics. But while she didn’t shy away from arguments with colleagues, elected officials at the local level are limited in power, Jones explained.
Edwards, a former Houston City Council member, never wrote any ordinances or got an item on an agenda, Jones says. And Menefee, while in a powerful position as county attorney, is suing the federal government rather than building bridges across the aisle, which will be necessary for whoever lands in Washington, she added.
However, researchers said Menefee’s bold stance against the Republican President Trump could actually help him get elected in CD 18, which encompasses downtown, part of the Heights, Acres Homes, Third Ward, northeast Houston and the area surrounding George Bush Intercontinental Airport and Humble.
“This is a very liberal electorate,” Mark Jones said. “Around two out of three CD 18 voters did not vote for Donald Trump. When Menefee can be seen as fighting Donald Trump and Republicans in Washington, that’s only going to endear him to an overwhelming share of the CD 18 electorate. That’s where Jolanda Jones has an inside track because she has the image of someone who fights harder against Republicans than anyone else.”
Voters in the 18th Congressional District are frustrated that not enough people are fighting against the Trump administration, Sims said.
“This is not a district that wants to hear you’re going to work with Republicans,” she said. “They’re going to be looking for the type of leader they can send to Washington to fight for them. We don’t want you to go along and get along. We want you to treat them like they’ve treated you.
“They’re looking for their version of Jasmine Crockett right here in Houston,” Sims said, referring to the U.S. Congresswoman from Dallas who has gone viral for her spirited debates with Republicans.
Most of the district’s residents are Latino, but Black voter turnout is higher. State Rep. Cristina Morales is rumored to be considering a bid for CD 18 and could mobilize Latino voters, Mark Jones said.
Menefee hasn’t been a legislator so he hasn’t gotten to take votes and speak on the floor or in committee, but he has increasingly developed a strong track record of someone who is standing up to Republicans, political experts say.
“He and Jones have an advantage over Edwards there, in part because Edwards doesn’t hold office and therefore doesn’t have the opportunity,” Mark Jones said. “Edwards has a strong constituency among younger voters, but especially among progressive whites who are a significant share of the voting electorate in the district.”
The Race to Congress
Other Democrats on the CD 18 ticket include former Miss Houston Zoe Cadore, Peter Filler, Robert Slater, Rain Eatmon, James Joseph, and Isaiah Martin. Republicans Carmen Montiel, Deshon Porter and Cyrus Sajna have filed for the seat, as have independent candidates George Foreman IV and Chance Davis. Candidate Reyna Anderson filed with the American Solidarity Party.
Martin, a former Sheila Jackson Lee staffer, has raised more than $200,000, although most of it was on hand from a previous election, and has a significant social media following. Both Sims and Mark Jones said he’s one to keep an eye on. Menefee and Edwards have each raised almost $400,000, according to the Federal Election Commission.
“It’s early but this is going to be a fragmented election field,” Mark Jones said. “You have Edwards, Menefee and Jones, but you also can’t count out people like Isaiah Martin and George Foreman IV, who have the potential to win a significant share of the votes. At the end of the day there will be at least one if not more Republicans in this race. Someone like Carmen Montiel, simply by having the R next to her name, has a chance to win a decent number of votes.”
The special election coincides with a few constitutional amendments and therefore will draw a larger share of non-Democrat voters than if it were just a Congressional District 18 race, Mark Jones said.
“About a third of the people who turn out to vote are likely going to be Republicans,” he said. “It’s quite possible that a ticket to the runoff could be punched with somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the vote.”
Jolanda Jones acknowledged she’s got some catching up to do since the other big-name candidates have been campaigning and fundraising since March. The second-term state representative said she wanted to finish the legislative session before declaring her candidacy.
“I was raised not to quit before I finished, and at a minimum, I needed to complete the legislative session,” said Jones, who announced her candidacy June 5, three days after the Legislature gaveled out. “If that means I start off fundraising behind my opponents, that’s fine. I ran track. There were many times, not few, that I got the baton in almost last place and I ended up being in first place.”
The big three candidates have varying levels of name recognition but all could benefit from going door to door and making appearances at civic clubs over the next five months, political experts said.
“All of them need to spend time introducing themselves to likely voters,” Mark Jones said. “The difficulty with this election is the turnout issue. What they need to be doing now is targeting those who are virtually certain to turn out, people who voted in the Democratic primary and people who voted in past constitutional amendment elections.”
Sims said campaign finance reports due in mid-July will show who has the chops to organize a grassroots campaign. Until then, she’s reserving her opinion on who will make the runoff.
The runoff winner will have to run again in a March 2026 primary but the ultimate victor will likely hold the seat for a very long time, Sims said. And the Congressional seat, which will have been without representation for almost a year by the time it is filled, comes with significant power.
It’s likely that Democrats will take control of the U.S. House in the midterm, given the current “wafer-thin Republican majority,” Mark Jones said.
“Being in the majority in the U.S. House is everything,” he said. “The minority has very limited ability to push through policies, whereas, in the majority you would control committees and be much more active in taking an oppositional approach to the Trump administration.”
