I would say that the start to the 2026 season has been the roughest starts in recent history for the Houston Astros, but in reality, slow starts have been the norm here in the Joe Espada Era. Therefore, it’s tough to parse out whether or not this season’s first couple months, which bottomed out at 20-31 a couple weeks ago, feels better or worse than the 12-24 disaster of 2024.
What we do know about this season’s wretched outset is that the pitching was historically bad. For most of this season, the Astros have had the worst ERA in baseball, and early on in the season, it was worse than the next closest team by over a full run. The Astros’ pitching staff couldn’t find the strike zone, leading the league in walks allowed by an equally absurd margin.
The main culprits were plentiful. Injuries immediately zapped Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and eventually Lance McCullers. Tatsuya Imai’s acclimation to pitching in America, after a career in Japan, was so bad they had to fabricate an injury just to let him get his head right. The pain from Josh Hader’s absence was exacerbated by how terrible Bryan Abreu was (and kind of still is).
However, the Astros are 10-6 over their last 16 games. More importantly, while the overall numbers aren’t great — they are still 29th in ERA out of 30 teams — the ERA is finally below 5.00 (at 4.92), and in the final two weeks of May, their starters posted a 3.33 ERA. For a franchise that rode the back of good starting pitching to two World Series titles and several ALCS appearances, this was a beautiful thing to see.
Now, the reinforcements are getting ready to return, and the whole situation begs the question — once the Astros’ starting pitchers are all healthy again, who is in this rotation? So let’s dig in. I’m going to assume a six man rotation for the team, and obviously, right now it’s based on performance to THIS point. The healthy pitchers will have multiple starts between now and full (or near full) health for the staff, so things can change in the next few weeks. Here we go, with the requisite percentage chance each one has to be in the starting rotation heading into the dog days of summer:
HUNTER BROWN — 100 percent
SPENCER ARRIGHETTI — 100 percent
When healthy, Brown is the unequivocal ace of the staff, after finishing as a finalist for the 2025 AL Cy Young Award. Arrighetti is on that level this season, and then some, with his 7-1 record and 1.34 ERA. His ascent has put him right alongside Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker for “MVP of the team” honors.
TATSUYA IMAI — 90 percent
Imai at this lofty percentage would have hit much different a month ago, when Imai was entering the pitching equivalent of a dark retreat, going on the injured list with a phantom arm injury so that he could undergo a psychological overhaul. His ERA was nearly 10.00 in barely eight innings across four appearances. Since returning three starts ago, Imai has a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of under 1.00. His $18 million salary virtually guarantees him a starting role if he is anything better than mediocre.
MIKE BURROWS — 80 percent
KAI-WEI TANG — 75 percent
These are two Dana Brown acquisitions from the offseason. Burrows came over in a three team trade for two prospects, and was one of Dana Brown’s pet moves this offseason. Thus far, his 5.40 ERA hasn’t done much to inspire Astros fans. The big culprit for Burrows has been home runs, as nobody has allowed more than the 13 he’s given up. He’s had a few starts, though, where you can see what Brown liked in acquiring him. Teng just entered the rotation full bore a few weeks ago, and he’s continued his stellar performance that began in the bullpen at the start of the season. Teng’s ERA overall is 2.57, and his ERA as a starter is 2.84.
PETER LAMBERT — 60 percent
Lambert has been one of the bigger surprises for the Astros, especially given that he was designated for assignment to start the season. Once he passed through waivers, the Astros brought him back into the organization, and once the injuries piled up, along came opportunity. Lambert has, by and large, responded, and given them a league-average type performance, with a 4-4 record, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.213 WHIP.
CRISTIAN JAVIER — 40 percent
LANCE McCULLERS — 10 percent
JASON ALEXANDER — 3 percent
COLTON GORDON — 3 percent
I would guess that Javier will get an opportunity to prove himself as a starting pitcher, mainly because they are paying him $21 million this season. The problem is Javier hasn’t been good since the 2022 season, with a big chunk of that time spent rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. This season, he had a 12.54 ERA in three starts, before suffering a shoulder strain. McCullers may have thrown his last pitch as an Astros, after his latest injury, in the final year of his deal. Gordon and Alexander are included as emergency arms, with some starting experience, but I doubt either has a snowball’s chance in hell of cracking the rotartion if everyone is healthy.
