We are not typically ones for hyperbole. But with only 15 wins in their first 40 games, it isn’t hyperbole when it is actually true. Even with some recent series wins, the Astros are still 10 games below .500, but they have a real chance to turn that around very quickly…or not.
The truth is, the Astros are NOT in a bad position overall. That’s a pretty outlandish thing to suggest given their record, but when the best team in your division is only six-and-a-half games ahead of you in mid May, you realize that isn’t an insurmountable lead especially when you consider the AL’s second place Rangers just got swept by the Rockies.
What makes the next 16 games so critical is not just who they are against but how they begin to even out what has been a very tough schedule for the Astros to start the year. No one, including the team, should be whining about how tough they have had it. Yes, they have had one of the five toughest schedules in baseball to start the season, but now they have a chance to make up for it.
Over the next two-plus weeks, the Astros will play the A’s six more times after beating them Monday night, the Brewers three times, the Angels three times and the Mariners four times. That’s 14 total games in the division and three against a very solid NL Central team.
If the Astros were to go anything less than 9-7 in that stretch (unless they are swept by the Brew Crew), it would be reasonable to consider this season over. With 9 wins, they would go to 25-32 with over a third of the season finished putting them on pace for 75 wins. Even with a weaker schedule, being forced to go 65-30 or better over the rest of the season, while possible, is not reasonable.
On the other hand, if the Astros go 13-3, that puts them suddenly at 29-28, just over .500, and back in the thick of the division race in the AL West. It’s the difference of only four wins, but it is substantial when you consider the probabilities in this division.
By the time those games are in the rearview mirror, the Astros could find themselves in the hunt for another division or in the sellers market approaching the trading deadline.
It isn’t overstating it to say these games may certainly change the season, or hyperbole to suggest they could have a significant impact on the direction of the franchise.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
