Earlier this season, I said the best way to describe the Houston Aeros was “consistently inconsistent.” When you expect them to play their best, they play their worst. When you expect them to play their worst, they play their best.
Despite having three high-octane scorers in Krys Kolanos, Corey Locke, and Jesse Schultz, the Aeros are a better specialty team unit than they are a five-on-five unit. They’re a team that has trouble holding a lead, but they’re also a team that has shown an ability to come back from behind and defeat anybody. They play better tired than well-rested.
It’s a team that head coach Kevin Constantine has been unable to figure out this entire season. Yet despite slumping at the end of the season, and despite the loss of the team’s two primary goal keepers, the team made it to the playoffs. And despite all of that, the team was able to pull off a first round upset.
Thus comes tonight. The start of West Division Finals.
The Aeros are up in Milwaukee to take on the Admirals in the first game
of a best-of-seven series. The Admirals, which finished with the most
points in the AHL, are in many ways a better team than the Aeros. But
the Aeros actually had a decent record against the Admirals this
season, going 3-1-1-1 for a possible 8 out of 12 points this season.
But here’s the big problem, I haven’t seen the Aeros play Milwaukee in
this calendar year. All of the games in Houston against the Admirals
were back in 2008. I had had an overload of watching the Aeros and
Peoria play games the last month of the season, so I had a pretty good
handle on how those games would go. I don’t have such a strong handle
on this team now.
But I think I have a good enough handle on the Aeros to make a
prediction. The Aeros will pull off another upset and defeat the
Milwaukee Admirals in six games.
And here’s why. Krys Kolanos.
I was in the locker room after Monday’s game interviewing the team.
And they’re happy and shouting and celebrating. And then there’s Krys
Kolanos. He’s got a smile on his face. He’s happy for his teammates.
But there’s something else about him. He doesn’t ramble in the answers
he gives. He gives straightforward assessments of how the team
played. He’s calm. He’s composed.
And I see it. He’s not happy with their play. He’s not happy with his
play. Sure, he scored the game’s first goal. Sure, by the force of his
will he was nearly the only guy to play to his ability in that
disastrous game-seven second period. But I’m talking to him, and I see
it. He doesn’t care about beating the Peoria Rivermen. Sure, it was
nice to get to win, but that win is only a necessary step. He wants to
win it all.
The Aeros are a different team when Kolanos is on the ice. They
all seem to have this confidence that with him there, they can score at
any time. Locke can rack up the points, and he can be fun to
watch. But he can’t create on his own like Kolanos. And Kolanos knows
he can do this, and the team seems to know he can do this, so it’s like
they play looser when he’s out there, which helps everybody.
So that’s my key. I’m going with Krys Kolanos. I just think the guy
wants to win, and nothing is going to stop him, and if he has to pull
the entire team along with him, then so be it. And nothing against
Milwaukee Admirals goalie Drew MacIntyre, but if Peoria Rivermen goalie
Manny Legace — a former NHL All-Star — couldn’t stop Kolanos from
scoring, then I don’t think MacIntyre will have much luck either.
There you have it. The upset. Again. The Aeros will win it in six.
And Milwaukee, you better hope this doesn’t go to a seventh game,
because then another factor comes into play. The Kevin
Constantine-coaching-an-underdog-on-the-road-in-Game-Seven Factor.
Because Constantine-coached teams don’t lose game sevens when they’re
the underdog and on the road. He previously coached the eighth-seeded
San Jose Sharks and Pittsburgh Penguins of the NHL to huge upsets over
heavily favored number-one seeds Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey
Devils in game sevens in the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs. He’s also
done it several times in various other minor leagues. And he just did
it on Monday night.
But it’s not going to matter. Not with the Aeros winning in six.
P.S.: Before I go. For those who read Tuesday’s Aeros post and that bit about the phantom goal let me add this. The Chron‘s
Andrew Ferraro found still photo and video evidence that, in fact, a
goal was scored by the Aeros that the refs didn’t allow. Just in case any of you were really curious about that.
This article appears in Apr 30 – May 6, 2009.
