Unfortunately, in Houston, the only current Texan to find his way onto the MVP odds board is being sued by 22 women, has a massive criminal investigation open against him, and if he is absolved of all of those things, he no longer ants to play for the team. Indeed, Deshaun Watson sits at 40/1 on the MVP odds board, and that's without knowing even IF or FOR WHOM he is going to play football next season.
A bet on Watson is a bet on so much more than his physical football talent — it's a bet on the legal system, a bet on Roger Goodell's conduct policy whims, and a bet on the strength of the human psyche when a person has been banished from work for over a year. It's a fascinating bet. For the record, here is the complete set of NFL MVP odds, courtesy of BetOnline.ag:
Josh Allen 6/1Here are a few other 2022 MVP related thoughts:
Patrick Mahomes 15/2
Aaron Rodgers 9/1
Dak Prescott 12/1
Joe Burrow 12/1
Justin Herbert 16/1
Kyler Murray 16/1
Lamar Jackson 16/1
Matthew Stafford 16/1
Russell Wilson 20/1
Derrick Henry 28/1
Jonathan Taylor 28/1
Cooper Kupp 33/1
Derek Carr 33/1
Deebo Samuel 40/1
Deshaun Watson 40/1
Jalen Hurts 40/1
Mac Jones 40/1
Trey Lance 40/1
Kirk Cousins 50/1
Baker Mayfield 66/1
Ja'Marr Chase 80/1
Trevor Lawrence 80/1
Alvin Kamara 100/1
Austin Ekeler 100/1
Carson Wentz 100/1
Christian McCaffrey 100/1
Dalvin Cook 100/1
Davante Adams 100/1
Jameis Winston 100/1
Jimmy Garoppolo 100/1
Justin Fields 100/1
Matt Ryan 100/1
Myles Garrett 100/1
Nick Chubb 100/1
Ryan Tannehill 100/1
T.J. Watt 100/1
Tua Tagovailoa 100/1
Watson isn't the only QB in a mysterious situation
It's not just Deshaun Watson who is in a situation where his odds could greatly swing once he finds a new home. There are several others, chief among them the current two time reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers. Currently, he sits at 9/1 on the board. It looks like he SHOULD be back in Green Bay next season, but if he is traded, he could easily wind up in Denver or any of three or four other places. Other names who are in situations that are at least a little questionable include Kyler Murray in Arizona, Russell Wilson in Seattle, Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, and Carson went in Indianapolis.
Does the "rookie contract QB" theory hold up in this race?
There was a three-year period, from 2017 through 2019, where the smartest bets were all second year quarterbacks. In 2017, Wentz would have won the award if he hadn't suffered a knee injury late in the season. (Tom Brady ended up taking it instead.) In 2018 and 2019, the MVPs were Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, respectively, each in his second season in the league at the time. Rodgers' reign the last couple seasons has kind of trumped that theory, but if you think that "young QB" theory is a good way to identify value, then I would recommend Justin Herbert at 16/1. A lot of people will be on Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, but I think the Bengals might take a step back from their Super Bowl run a year ago.
Who's the best non-quarterback choice?
The MVO has become essentially a quarterback's award, with Offensive Player of the Year morphing into the de facto "non-QB" MVP award. Along those lines, it's always interesting to see how far down the list you have to go before you get to a non-quarterback. On this odds board, there are ten quarterbacks listed before we get to a non-QB, with running backs Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor checking in at 28/1.
Each of them was in the MVP race of the last two seasons, respectively, with Henry rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2020, and Jonatha Taylor winning the rushing title this past season in 2021. Next on the board is Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who actually received an MVP vote in 2022. It will be tough for someone other than a quarterback to win it in this space age passing era we now live in, but Taylor and Kupp are decent choices.
Who are the most glaring omissions?
There is no choice on the board for "Field" (gambling parlance for "guys not listed on here"), but if there were, and I were to choose it, I would be banking on any of the following three players having huge seasons. First, Dallas do-everything-on-defense superstar Micah Parsons, who was the Defensive Rookie of the Year this past season, could make a great case if he has a similar season in 2022, and the Cowboys finish at the top of the NFC.
Second, DeAndre Hopkins, remember him, Texan fans? Hopkins missed most of the last two months of the season, while the Cardinals regular season turned from dark horse Super Bowl contender to non-threatening wild card team. In fact, after their 7-1 start, Hopkins played in just two games, had a total of seven catches, and the Cardinals finished on a 4-5 run, including 1-3 over the final month.
Finally, I still think there's an outside chance Tom Brady plays this coming season. He was the runner-up for the MVP in 2021, so it would stand to reason he could make a run, if he plays, in 2022.
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