So, here we are, five weeks into the 2022 NFL season, with all 32 teams having played five games, and lo and behold, in a season where nearly every draft expert has the Houston Texans picking first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft next spring (i.e. they are the WORST team in football), the Texans actually sit ahead of a handful of teams at the five game marker.
Take that, experts!
If the NFL Draft were to take place today, the draft order would look like this:
1 Carolina 1-4
2 Las Vegas 1-4
3 Pittsburgh 1-4
4 Detroit 1-4
5 Washington 1-4
6 HOUSTON 1-3-1
So with that win over Jacksonville on Sunday, the Texans “fell” in the draft by six slots, which is likely the difference between having your pick of the litter of college quarterbacks, and having to use extra draft capital to move up and get Bryce Young from Alabama or C.J. Stroud of Ohio State. However, here’s the thing — relax, there are still twelve games left. Plenty of time for the Texans to “work their way” back up the draft board (i.e. lose a ton of games).
The question in the short term is “Are the Texans actually better than these 1-4 teams, or is it a mirage?” The answer is likely “It depends on which 1-4 team we’re talking about!” Let’s examine each of them, complete with overall, offensive, and defensive DVOA rankings in parentheses. By the way, the Texans are 29th in overall DVOA, 28th on offense, and 24th on defense:
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (23rd overall, 19th offense, 22nd defense)
The one team that I am almost certain is superior to the Texans, despite their 1-4 record is actually the Texans’ next opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders. After Monday’s 30-29 loss to the Chiefs, the Raiders have now lost four games, each by a margin of six points or less. I still think the Raiders have the makings of a wild card team in the AFC.
DETROIT LIONS (24th overall, 14th offense, 32nd defense)
The Lions came into the season with all sorts of hype, after a preseason on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series. Dan Campbell is a head coach who seems like he’d be a blast to pound beers with, but as a head coach, he seems like a guy who… well… pounds a lot of beers. Their defense, coordinated by former Texan Aaron Glenn, is atrocious. I think the Texans might actually be better than the Lions, given the Lions are going to keep giving up 40 points every weekend.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (27th overall, 24th offense, 16th defense)
It’s so weird to see the Steelers in this area of the standings, as head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a season below .500 in a decade and a half at the helm. However, they’re now breaking in a rookie QB and they’re missing defensive stalwart T.J. Watt. With Watt back, the Steelers are probably slightly better than the Texans, but not by much.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (30th overall, 30th offense, 19th defense)
Here’s the other team on this list that is a future opponent of the Texans. The Commanders actually have some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but Carson Wentz is their quarterback. Wentz was actually 2-0 against the Texans last season as the Colts’ QB. I think Washington is a more talented team, but the Texans might beat them at home, when the two teams play in Week 11.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (31st overall, 31st overall, 17th overall)
This team just fired their head coach. Baker Mayfield is their quarterback, and he is worse than Davis Mills. The Panthers are the worst team in football, and deservedly so.
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2022.
