“You are what your record says you are” is a popular sports axiom attributed to former NFL coach Bill Parcells. If that is the case, the Rockets are pretty damn good heading despite a 101-100 loss at Milwaukee Monday night. Their record at 10-5 has them ranked fourth in the Western Conference and they are fresh off a five-game winning streak.
But is a .667 record reasonable for this team spread over an entire season? It’s not uncommon for teams to take sudden leaps, particularly those who have a lot of young talent. It also helps that nearly this entire squad has played together with the same coaching staff for two consecutive years. If we some clues as to how good the Rockets can be, let’s look at the numbers.
Record of Opponents: 83-96
The combined record of Rockets opponents this year is under .500, so to their credit, they have been mostly taking care of business. Their struggles have largely been against good teams like the Warriors and Thunder. The Bucks have been terrible this year, but they are turning it around. The other losses are the Spurs and Hornets. Their best wins have been against the Mavs, Knicks and, arguably, their two-game sweep of the Clippers. But, they will need to improve against the really good teams to prove what they are doing is sustainable.
Ratings Rank – Offensive Rating: 13th, Defensive Rating: 3rd, Net Rating: 5th
This is a huge leap over last season. They were good last year defensively and bad offensively. This year, they are excellent on the defensive end and slightly above average on offense. Clean up some of their shooting and they could be top 10 in both, but a net rating of 5th in the NBA is stellar considering where they have been the past few years.
+/- – 7.9, Rank: 5th
The plus-minus rating demonstrates just how good the Rockets have been in wins. They rarely get blown out, but they can put a beat down on other teams. They are still a full point-and-a-half behind the next best team, but that is an encouraging rank even this early in the season.
Effective Field Goal Percentage – 50.4, Rank: 27th
This is where we can immediately get some inkling as to the Rockets weak spot. They are simply not a good shooting team. Now, they have dramatically improved their rebounding, especially on the offensive end, giving them extra shots. They also are top six in the league in turnovers even if their assist-to-turnover ratio is just average. They are a very disciplined team, but they just are poor shooters. They are 25th in field goal percentage and 28th in three point percentage. That will have to improve if they want to maintain their early season success.
Pace – 99.74, Rank: 12th
This is one spot where they should be able to help themselves offensively. The Rockets are insanely athletic and relentless on defense. They are nearly top 10 in forcing turnovers and tops in the league in rebounding meaning they should be able to get out and run any time they want. The more this team runs, the better their efficiency on offense.
Bottom Line
This Rockets team, by many different measures, is very good and sustainably so, particularly because they are such a tough defensive squad. Shooting will cap how far they can go, however. They don’t have any traditionally great shooters other than Reed Sheppard and he’s a rookie. Other young players like Jalen Green and Tari Eason are improving, but they cannot be counted on as consistently reliable weapons from distance just yet.
When it comes to offense, this team is evolving. Will that evolution happen before the end of this season and with this group, or will they need another year and/or some tweaks to the roster? Hard to say at this point. What is certain is that this is a team with the requisite skills to reach the postseason assuming some injury luck and even a slight improvement in offensive efficiency. It’s a very good start for a promising young team.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
