For the third straight season under manager Joe Espada, the Houston Astros came out of the gates in very underwhelming fashion. 45 games into the season, the Astros sat with a 17-28 record, floundering in the muck of pretenders in the American League.
And for the third straight season under manager Joe Espada, the Houston Astros pulled their metaphorical plane out of a nosedive. In 2024, they were able to win 88 games and the division. In 2025, they were able to win 87 games and miss the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. Now, in 2026, with a red hot stretch after the All Star break, and thanks to a decidedly awful American League West, they are leading the division with 58 games to go.
With this recent 12-3 run over the last 15 games, the appetite among fans for moves before this past Monday’s trade deadline did a 180 degree turn. A fan base that wanted to stand pat in June, all of a sudden, thirsted for a left handed outfield bat and more pitching.
They got one of their wishes granted (sort of) with GM Dana Brown bringing in outfielder Daulton Varsho from Toronto in exchange for starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, who had followed up his AL Pitcher of the Month Award in May with roughly a 9.00 ERA since June 1. Ironically, the trade of Arrighetti for an outfielder highlighted why the Astros NEEDED pitching — Arrighetti was expendable because he had started to stink.
In the end, when 5 p.m. Central Time hit on Monday, the Astros had imported no new pitchers, which is practically inexcusable for a team whose starting rotation has an ERA of around 5.00 since June 1. Dana Brown tried to put a good face on it, rationalizing things by citing the returns from injury of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski as “basically just like trading for someone.”
Here is the problem with that line of thinking, actually a few problems. First, that’s a sales pitch coming from a GM trying to save his job. Brown is in the final year of his contract, and is embattled to say the least. Second, Brown gave the exact same spiel a year ago when he failed to acquire pitching, saying that the injury returns of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and (again, ironically) Arrighetti could carry the day. He was wrong.
That’s the final issue with Brown’s misguided thinking on the pitching staff construct — the “return from injury” guys as potential solutions has worked out catastrophically for this team over the last couple years. First, there is the slew of guys who underwent Tommy John surgery since 2024:
CRISTIAN JAVIER
Returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025, and since his return has a 3-6 record and 5.46 ERA
LUIS GARCIA
Returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025, pitched two games and suffered another seaosn ending elbow injury
JOSE URQUIDY
Suffered an elbow injury in 2023, had Tommy John surgery and ever pitched for Astros again
RONEL BLANCO
Suffered an elbow injury early in 2025, had Tommy John surgery, returned a couple weeks ago, and has a 7.36 ERA in three starts
HAYDEN WESNESKI
Wesneski is the one early success story, but it’s only been two starts. His last start on Tuesday, Wesneski was outstanding, hurling six innings and allowing two earned runs
Then there is Lance McCullers, who’s had more comebacks from injury than the five guys listed above combined. Ironically, McCullers’ return from Tommy John surgery in 2020 was followed by his two best seasons, including a seventh place finish for the AL Cy Young Award in 2021. It’s the returns from every other injury since 2022 that have flopped, as McCullers’ ERA from 2023 through 2026 is 6.52. The Astros moved on from him a few weeks ago, trading McCullers to the Brewers, who then cut him a week later.
So, when Dana Brown tries to sell you that guys returning from injury rehabs of over a year are suitable pseudo-acquisitions, don’t buy it. This team is going to need Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert to be nearly flawless the rest of the way.
