You knew when the Houston Texans’ schedule was released back in May, that this stretch we are in right now, three football games in 11 days, was going to feel exhausting. The players, first and foremost, feel like they are running on fumes, with key guys dropping like flies in the game against the Chiefs. That it’s all culminating on Christmas Day against one of the most physical teams in football feels like a recipe for disaster.
So here come the Baltimore Ravens, with a ton to play for, as they are tied at the top of the AFC North right now at 10-5 with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers hold the tie breaker over the Ravens, so the Ravens need a win and hope for a Steelers loss to the Chiefs on Christmas to take the lead in the AFC North. A Texans win, all of a sudden, makes the 3-seed a possibility.
Let’s lay out the storylines….
4. Life after Tank
If the Texans were going to be able to so some damage against this Ravens defense, it would have been through the air, but that’s a big “if” even with a healthy Tank Dell. The Ravens’ pass defense has been below average all season, but the Texans are just running out of capable bodies at wide receiver. They did pick up former Raven Deontae Johnson off waivers on Monday afternoon, but it’s doubtful he would see many, if any, snaps.
3. Kicking game
Like the Chiefs game last weekend, this is viewed by the betting community to be a game where the two teams are within a field goal of each other, so naturally it could come down to the kicking game. From a reputation standpoint, these are two of the better kickers in the NFL, with Ravens kicker Justin Tucker a possible future Hall of Famer. However, Tucker has been extremely shaky this season, making just 21 of 29 field goals, and missing several from in close. This may be one area where the Texans have an edge.
2. Raven tight ends
The Ravens offense is a handful. Lamar Jackson has thrown 37 touchdowns this season versus just 4 interceptions. Those are MVP level numbers, and don’t even begin to scratch the surface of his impact in the run game, which we will get to in a minute. When Jackson does attack through the air, the tight end solutions on the Ravens are high level weapons, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. The Texans have had trouble covering tight ends this season, as evidenced against Travis Kelce and Noah Gray last weekend. This is another game where the absence of Azeez Al-Shaair is a killer
1. Jackson-Henry combo platter
Make no mistake, this probably feels like a revenge game for Derrick Henry, who’s shown the world that he might never die, rushing for over 1,600 yards this season on nearly six yards per attempt. Last season, after three seasons of bludgeoning the Texans for over 200 yards twice a year, the Texans held Henry to 51 yards on 28 carries in the Titans’ two losses to the Texans. Who knows? Maybe those two games, which both occurred late in the season, contributed to the Titans’ willingness to let Henry walk in free agency. Whatever the case, it’s bad news for the Texans and the rest of the AFC that he is aligned with Jackson in an offense that’s looked unstoppable oftentimes throughout this season.
SPREAD: Ravens -3
PREDICTION: Ravens 31, Texans 17
SEASON RECORD: 10-5 SU, 3-12 ATS
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This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2024.
