It’s all over Twitt…er…X. In an interview, Astros GM Dana Brown seemed emphatic. “Lemme put it to you this way, Kyle Tucker will be a Houston Astro,” Brown said. “We feel strongly about getting it done and I feel he will be an Astro for the rest of his career. We’ll get it done.”
“We’ll get it done.” That’s about as blunt as you can get. Of course, Brown didn’t feel great about his chances with Tucker in March when he discussed his right fielder and Famber Valdez with the Houston Chronicle. “I felt a little more optimistic a week ago,” Brown said at the time. “I feel a little less optimistic. We may be further away particularly on Tucker than Valdez, but I’m one of those to keep hope alive until it’s like ‘OK, let’s circle back at a different date.’ I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that.”
So, which is it? Well, maybe both. Clearly the Astros want to extend Tucker, who is one of the best outfielders in the majors this year. The bigger question is can they and will team owner Jim Crane do what it takes to make that happen?
The trade deadline might be a sign of things to come.
Tucker is under team control for at least two more seasons, so there is no rush, but the Astros moves at the trade deadline may be showing their hand just a bit. Both Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford were high level prospects for the Astros, but both were also outfielders. True, the team is loaded with them, but those were clearly their two brightest stars and Gilbert was on the fast track to the majors.
Interestingly, both Clifford and Gilbert project as corner outfielders. Brown specifically said Gilbert is a right fielder. That is a key point considering both appeared to be a way to hedge against Tucker leaving. Add to that the fact that Jacob Melton, another lefty bat who has been tearing up high A ball, is projected in center field and remains in the organization. If Tucker stays, their corner outfield spots are locked up.
Will Crane bend on the long-term contract rule?
Crane has long said he does not want to give out contracts longer than five, maybe six years and, thus far, he has stuck to his guns. But, increasingly, the league is signing star talent to longer deals to stay competitive. If the Astros are going to retain the services of their right fielder, every indication is they will need to add more years to any prospective deal than they may be comfortable offering.
In March, Brown expressed similar concern over deals more than six years as well. So, as much as they may want to keep Tucker in an Astros uniform, they will likely need to go outside their comfort zone to do it, especially if Tucker continues to improve and inches closer to free agency.
If there was one good reason to change the long-term contract rule, this would be it.
As a general rule, we have agreed with the Astros on the concept of long-term deals. We agreed when they passed up signing both George Springer and Carlos Correa. Both seem to have worked out. But, if there is a reason to potentially go out to eight or even nine years with Tucker, it’s his age. At 26, any deal like that would make him a free agent at 34 or 35 years old. He might be in decline at that point, but not by much and it would keep him here through five or six of his prime baseball years. If there was ever an exception to be made, this might be it.
Ultimately, Tucker may want to test free agency.
In the end, this is all just conjecture and Kyle Tucker is the only one who knows what he will do. Many players opt to go into free agency to create bidding wars and increase their value. That has worked for some and backfired for others. It’s a risk, but it might be one Tucker wants to take, particularly if he is right in the heart of his prime playing years. He’s still a few years away from that, but if that is what he wants, there isn’t much the Astros can do.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
