Last year, in the waning weeks of the 2025 season, the Astros collapsed and missed the postseason. It only took two weeks out of an entire season, but it was enough. With 18 games remaining for both the Astros and the Rangers, who sit two games back in the AL West, it is a race to the finish. The Astros have the decided advantage of owning the tiebreaker making them essentially three games up on the Rangers, but a lot can happen in 18 games.
SERIES ONE
Astros at Phillies (3 games)
Rangers at Mariners (3 games)
Advantage: Rangers
If you are going to go on the road right now, Philadelphia isn’t high on the list. The Phillies just split a series with the Braves keeping them four games back in the division, but they are a comfortable five games ahead for the second NL Wild Card spot. Their run differential this season is +35. The Astros are -38. But the Astros are better on the road than the Phils are at home. Still, I wouldn’t count on this as a win for the ‘Stros while the Rangers visit the rapidly sinking M’s.
SERIES TWO
Astros at Rays (3 games)
Rangers at Diamondbacks (3 games)
Advantage: Push
The Astros are a good road team and have had some success against the Rays this season. They also tend to fare better against teams that don’t score a ton of runs. The Rangers go to Arizona to face a team fighting for its playoff life and one of the best come-from-behind teams in baseball. Currently, the Rays are 41-31 at home while the Rangers are 31-41 on the road.
SERIES THREE
Astros vs. Royals (3 games)
Rangers vs. Red Sox (3 games)
Advantage: Astros
We are hesitant to write this off as a series win for the Astros given how bad they have been against sub .500 teams this year, but this will be an extremely important series for them to win, while the Rangers battle Boston in Arlington. The Sox are comfortably in the postseason in a crazy good AL East with plenty of firepower to take out anyone including the Rangers. This is where the Astros could help extend their lead…if they can beat a bad team (not a given).
SERIES FOUR
Astros vs. Braves (3 games)
Rangers vs. Blue Jays (3 games)
Advantage: Rangers
The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball and may still be battling for the one seed in the American League. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have been very good of late and should still be battling Texas for the remaining Wild Card spot. Depending on where the Astros and Rangers are in the division at this point, this could be a huge pair of series for both teams.
SERIES FIVE
Astros at Mariners (2 games)
Rangers vs. Mets (3 games)
Advantage: Astros
The Astros play well in Seattle and there’s a decent chance the Mariners are shutting it down for the offseason by this point. The Mets will have nothing to play for, but they still have a formidable lineup and could easily play the role of spoiler. Astros fans will certainly hope so.
SERIES SIX
Astros at A’s (4 games)
Rangers at Twins (3 games)
Advantage: Astros?
We add that question mark because, on paper, the Astros should crush this series and cement their division win, but we know how shaky they have been against the East Sacramento team the last couple years. Best case scenario, they already have the division sewn up and they can rest some guys. Worst case, they need wins on the road while the Rangers go to Minnesota to play a Twins team that will likely have nothing to play for.
