Conservative Voter May Have the Final Word in Houston's Runoff Elections

The one unusual aspect of this year’s mayoral and council runoffs is probably that more Republicans are turning out than usual in Democratic-dominated Houston.

That’s the assessment of University of Houston political science lecturer Nancy Sims. “Early voting reflects a very high conservative voter turnout, which is unusual for city elections,” Sims said. “The city tends to vote a bit more liberal in county and regional governments. The City of Houston has always had a liberal voter turnout.”

She added that this higher, concentrated Republican vote could have the potential to sway certain races or assist candidates on the ballot, including John Whitmire seen as the more moderate Democrat to U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in the mayor’s race, and city controller candidate Orlando Sanchez, a Republican, – who is running against Democrat Chris Hollins.

Sims said this effect could extend down the ballot to the non-district City Council races where eight candidates are vying for at-large positions one, two, three and four. These are the more unpredictable of the Houston contests on the ballot, as there does not appear to be one clear leader in their respective races.

“What’s interesting is that some of these folks led in the runoffs with higher vote percentages than John Whitmire – they led in with 46 to 48 percent,” she added. “But the conservative candidates are definitely stronger at the moment the way turnout looks.”

Houston area voters will have their last chance to cast their ballots on Saturday to determine half of the city’s elected leadership. The runoff contests include mayor, controller, district and at large city council positions. Baytown and Bellaire residents will vote for their next District 4 City Council member and mayor, respectively.

Earlier this week, the early voting period wrapped up with roughly 131,000 voters collectively casting their ballots in person and by mail. This is lower than the more than 224,000 early votes from November’s general election.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor, said turnout drop-off tends to run between 10 percent to 30 percent during a runoff election. Fewer early voters this time around also reflects the number of overall voters that showed up to the polls last month.

“If you don’t have enthusiasm about the election in the first round, it’s unlikely to generate enthusiasm in the runoff,” Rottinghaus said. “This is like a triple whammy of low turnout. It’s a runoff, it’s an off-cycle, and it’s a local race. These are just bad, key characteristics that predict low turnout.”

Rottinghaus said the last couple of open-seat elections – this one included – did not see significant change in voter interest. He said that the voter turnout, given the population growth and increase in voter rolls, is very thin.

He added that Houston has had closer mayoral races in the past, but this usually occurred when there were Republican and Democratic candidates, which motivated voters to turn out through partisanship – despite it being a non-partisan contest.

Although Whitmire tends to lean more moderate, working with Republicans and conservatives, Rottinghaus said voters see very few policy differences between both candidates.

Political experts say the showdown between renowned defense attorney Tony Buzbee and incumbent Mary Nan Huffman for District G is generating voter turnout despite being down-ballot compared to the mayoral race.

Sims said on Election Day that she will keep an eye on early returns to see if there is enough difference in in-person voting on Saturday and early-voting results for several of these candidates to overtake their competitors.

The polls will be open on Election Day, Saturday, December 9, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at more than 400 vote centers across Harris County.