If you’ve been reading my work in this space for a while now, then you are aware of how big a wagering enthusiast I am. I love betting, and I love that it is becoming increasingly legal across the country, and I hate that it’s not yet legal in Texas. Furthermore, you know that I really enjoy that wagering avails you to speculating on the employment of other human beings, and profiting from their failure!
More specifically, I say “God bless the internet and wagering” when the first round of “First NFL head coach to be fired this season” odds come out. That day is here! In the past few years, the Houston Texans head coach, whoever it’s been, has been fairly high up the board. Hell, Bill O’Brien was the winning ticket in 2020!
This season, though, the vibe of DeMeco Ryans is palpable, on the field and in the sports book. Ryans is WAY down the list of candidates to be fired first this season, at 75/1 odds. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the full list, courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Mike McCarthy 5/1
Todd Bowles 6/1
Ron Rivera 7/1
Dennis Allen 8/1
Kevin Stefanski 9/1
Josh McDaniels 10/1
Matt Eberflus 14/1
Matt Lafleur 14/1
Mike Vrabel 14/1
Arthur Smith 16/1
Brandon Staley 16/1
Sean McVay 16/1
Dan Campbell 20/1
Kevin O’Connell 20/1
John Harbaugh 25/1
Mike Tomlin 33/1
Robert Saleh 33/1
Jonathan Gannon 40/1
Doug Pederson 50/1
Mike McDaniel 50/1
Pete Carroll 50/1
Frank Reich 66/1
Shane Steichen 66/1
DeMeco Ryans 75/1
Bill Belichick 100/1
Brian Daboll 100/1
Kyle Shanahan 100/1
Nick Sirianni 100/1
Sean McDermott 100/1
Sean Payton 100/1
Zac Taylor 100/1
Andy Reid 250/1
Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy as the favorite feels more like the books trying to capitalize on the high profile of the Cowboys than actuality. I think the Cowboys, perhaps despite McCarthy, will be a pretty good football team this season.
In order for me to wager on a candidate, they have to be coming into the season on an inherently hot seat. With that in mind, for what it’s worth, here are four picks on whom I would ponder sprinkling a few bucks:
TODD BOWLES, Tampa Bay, 6/1
Bowles was always an interesting choice to succeed Bruce Arians as the head coach of the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers. They’ve an underwhelming outfit under Bowles, and now he doesn’t have Brady around anymore. Baker Mayfield is the Bucs’ quarterback. They open the season as underdogs in five of their first seven games. I imagine a world where a loss in Houston in Week 9 is Bowles’ knockout blow.
KEVIN STEFANSKI, Cleveland, 9/1
Stefanski is in a bit of a thankless situation. He is the one whose neck is on the line if the Deshaun Watson trade doesn’t work out. The bad news is that Watson looked broken in his six starts to close out 2022. The further bad news is that the Browns open with three division games in the first four weeks, get an early bye, and then face San Francisco in Week 6. Stefanski getting fired early would be great news for the Texans, who own the Browns’ first round pick in the 2024 draft.
BRANDON STALEY, LA Chargers, 16/1
Staley got the Chargers to the playoffs in 2022, after missing the postseason in 2021, in no small part due to a horrific loss to the Texans down the stretch. Staley, though, blew a 27-0 lead in the playoff loss to the Jaguars, and his unconventional decision making has put Staley under the microscope. Justin Herbert’s $262 million contract only amps up the pressure on the head coach.
BILL BELICHICK, New England, 100/1
Sure, Belichick is the greatest head coach of all time, but he is definitely entering this season on the hot seat, and he’s hired Bill O’Brien to fix the offense. (NOTE: Bill O’Brien never had a top ten offense in seven seasons as Texans head coach.) Look, I don’t think Belichick will be the first head coach fired, but if I can get a 100/1 payout on a coach who (a) is definitely on the hot seat, and (b) has an eccentric, octogenarian owner, then give me some of that action!
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2023.
